Unlucky bettor loses nearly $1M wagering against Mamdani

Zohran Mamdani’s victory over Andrew Cuomo to become New York City’s 111th mayor came at the expense of one trader who lost about $1 million in one of the largest betting events in Polymarket’s history. 

According to data from Polymarket Analytics, the race between Mamdani, Cuomo, Curtis Sliwa, and Jim Walden generated more than $424 million in total trading volume on the decentralized prediction market platform.

Polymarket user loses $958,000 betting against Mamdani 

One pseudonymous Polymarket user using the handle “fuxfux007” recorded a $958,423 loss after betting against Mamdani’s victory. The trader’s account seems new as they had only made two wagers within the last two weeks, including a $973,757 short bet against Mamdani, and a much smaller $42,973 bet in the incoming mayor’s favour.

When the results came in, the market closed in on Mamdani’s win, wiping out nearly a million dollars from the user’s portfolio. fuxfux007 topped the Top 10 Losers chart by far, dwarfing the next closest loss of $153,183 by another trader named “toytrucks.” Other market participants like “0xeb…38e2” and “SolanaSnowballs,” posted losses near $100,000.

On the other side of the losses, the Top 10 Winners list was led by the account “dubdubdub2”, which gained $141,554 in total realized and unrealized profits. The top earnings were followed by successful bettors “0xfc…eac8,” “aenews2,” and “kcnyekchno” who all made profits between $78,000 and $117,000.

Polymarket records showed the total traded volume for Mamdani’s outcome exceeded $143 million, surpassing Curtis Sliwa with $60.4 million. Jim Walden and Andrew Cuomo saw $49.2 million and $48.7 million, respectively, while Brad Lander trailed at $29.2 million.

On the open interest side, which accounted for money still tied up in unsettled bets, Andrew Cuomo’s markets led with $7.45 million, followed by Mamdani’s with $3.38 million and Sliwa’s with $2.64 million. Eric Adams and Brad Lander had significantly smaller open interest, at $882,303 and $457,323, respectively.

Mamdani’s victory eats into Republicans’ breathing room

At just 34 years old, Mamdani has become the city’s youngest mayor in a century and its first Muslim mayor. Standing before a jubilant crowd on Tuesday night, the liberal leader quoted socialist leader Eugene Debs and pledged to represent “the working people of this city who have been forgotten for far too long.”

He also used the moment to slam US President Donald Trump, who is in the first year of his return to the White House. “Donald Trump, since I know you’re watching . . . I have four words for you: Turn the volume up!” Mamdani declared to loud applause. “If anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald Trump how to defeat him, it is the city that gave rise to him.”

Just a year before the 2026 midterms, Democrats are looking to flip the woes of losing the White House seat to Republicans, having struggled to unify a national strategy against Trump’s agenda since January. 

Polymarket predictions had called the elections a week before Tuesday, but billionaire Bill Ackman alleged that prediction markets were being manipulated to artificially inflate Zohran Mamdani’s odds of winning. 

Some similar claims were made during last year’s US Presidential election, when several media outlets accused Polymarket of manipulation after a French trader’s multimillion-dollar bets temporarily boosted Donald Trump’s chances on the platform.

Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, the former Guardian Angels leader and frequent Trump ally, had predicted a loss days before polls closed but vowed to keep watch over Mamdani’s leadership. 

“I will declare myself mayor in exile,” Sliwa told CNN during a campaign stop in Hell’s Kitchen. “I’ll keep a strong eye on what he does as mayor, and every time he crosses that line, organize the opposition, protest, and stop his initiatives.”

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