$140K Or Bust? Simulation Says Bitcoin’s Odds Are Now 50-50

According to economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin has a 50% chance of topping $140,000 before the month ends. He posted that likelihood on X and backed it with simulation work that uses a decade of price moves to map likely outcomes.

Simulation Based On Historical Data

Peterson said the model runs hundreds of simulations using daily Bitcoin prices going back to 2015. Based on those runs, he put the chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140,000 at 50%.

He also gave a 43% probability that the price will end the month below $136k. At the time he spoke, Bitcoin was trading at $121,200. That means a rise of about 11% would be needed to reach $140,000 from the current level.

Half of Bitcoin’s October gains may have already happened, according to this AI simulation. There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k But there is a 43% chance Bitcoin finishes below $136k. pic.twitter.com/LPhFr0mry9

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025

Bitcoin set a fresh all-time high of $126,200 on Monday, then cooled off. The coin began October at roughly $116,500, so the month has already produced gains.

According to data, October has been the second-best month on average since 2013, with typical gains of 20%. Reports have disclosed that November is the strongest month historically, averaging 46% gains since 2013.

No Human Emotion

Peterson described his forecast as driven by data rather than human emotion. He said each projection follows price changes that mirror Bitcoin’s past volatility and rhythm.

That approach aims to remove bias from short-term sentiment. Still, there are limits to what historical simulations can show.

Bitcoin has sometimes moved in ways that did not match past patterns. Market reactions, policy moves, and other forces can push prices off the script that history suggests.

Other analysts on social platforms urged continued optimism after the recent high. One analyst said the market was retesting prior highs and could move higher.

Another wrote that pressure was building for further gains. These views sit alongside data-led forecasts and are being watched by traders and funds.

Bitcoin is the new hurdle rate.

If you can’t beat it, you have to buy it.

I explained on @SquawkCNBC this morning why so many investors are not producing the returns they think they are. pic.twitter.com/re98rjCDua

— Anthony Pompliano (@APompliano) October 7, 2025

Reports have also carried comments from Anthony Pompliano, who argued on CNBC that Bitcoin’s rally can continue if governments and central banks keep printing money.

JUST IN: Anthony Pompliano tells CNBC Bitcoin will never stop going up.

“They will never stop printing money.” pic.twitter.com/qeWJnTsIb3

— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 7, 2025

His view links monetary policy to Bitcoin demand, and it is widely shared among supporters who see the asset as a hedge.

Featured image from Verdict, chart from TradingView