Bitcoin Spot Liquidity Shrinks: Stablecoin NetFlows Turn Negative Despite ETF Inflows

Bitcoin is pressing higher, pushing above the $115,000 level and edging closer to critical resistance. Momentum has returned to the market, with many traders anticipating a bullish move that could test all-time highs and extend the ongoing bull trend. Optimism is building as Bitcoin’s resilience at elevated levels fuels speculation of another aggressive breakout.

However, not all analysts are convinced that the path ahead is clear. Some caution that risks remain beneath the surface, pointing to worrying signals from liquidity data. Top analyst Axel Adler shared fresh insights showing that the average Stablecoin NetFlow to centralized exchanges has gone negative and has been declining since September 22. This trend suggests that fewer stablecoins are entering exchanges to provide spot liquidity, even as Bitcoin trades at elevated prices.

Declining liquidity can weaken market structure and increase vulnerability to sharper moves, particularly if selling pressure resurfaces. While ETF inflows and strong institutional demand continue to support Bitcoin, the imbalance between reduced stablecoin flows and rising price levels highlights a fragile dynamic. For bulls, holding above $115,000 is essential, but the market’s next phase will depend on whether liquidity returns to sustain a lasting rally.

ETF Inflows Support Bitcoin, But Uptober Needs More Fuel

Top analyst Axel Adler noted that institutional flows remain one of the strongest factors supporting Bitcoin’s price at current levels. Over the last couple of days, ETFs recorded inflows of $947 million, a sizable addition of fresh capital that has provided critical support for the market. These inflows demonstrate that institutional demand for Bitcoin remains robust, even as broader liquidity indicators, such as stablecoin flows, show signs of weakness.

Adler emphasized, however, that while ETF inflows are encouraging, they are not yet sufficient to power a full-fledged Uptober rally. Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, often marked by outsized gains and aggressive breakouts. But for that momentum to unfold again, Adler argues that the market needs broader confirmation, including stronger spot flows and renewed liquidity entering exchanges. Without that added layer of support, rallies risk losing steam against persistent resistance levels, such as the $117,500 zone that has capped upside moves since the summer.

The timing adds to the importance. With Q4 now underway, investors are looking ahead to what could be a defining stretch for Bitcoin’s bull trend. A breakout above resistance, paired with sustained inflows, would fuel optimism of retesting all-time highs. On the other hand, failure to gather momentum could prolong consolidation and keep traders cautious.

Bitcoin Tests $117,500 Resistance as Q4 Begins

Bitcoin is trading around $116,200, showing strength after recovering from lows near $112,000 earlier this month. On the 3-day chart, price action reveals a series of rebounds that continue to press against the $117,500 resistance zone, highlighted in yellow. This level has been a defining barrier since July, repeatedly rejecting attempts to break higher and marking it as the key level to watch heading into Q4.

The structure still reflects consolidation within a broad range, with $110,000 acting as a firm support base. Meanwhile, the 50-period moving average (blue) is providing short-term guidance, showing Bitcoin holding above it for the first time since the September pullback. The 100-period (green) and 200-period (red) averages remain comfortably below spot price, reinforcing the long-term bullish trend.

For momentum to continue, Bitcoin must decisively clear $117,500 and hold above it, which could open the path toward $120,000 and eventually retests of the summer highs near $125,000. Failure to break out, however, risks extending the consolidation phase, with downside targets at $112,000 and $110,000 once again coming into play.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com