Gold Drops 1% as Tariff Clarity Triggers Short-Term Risk-Off Move

TradingKey - As of July 28, gold was trading at $3,310.6 per ounce, down 1%, with an intraday low of $3,302 — marking its first four-day losing streak since April 2.

The decline comes amid signs of stabilizing global trade relations:

• The U.S. and the European Union have reached a tentative agreement on a 15% tariff rate.
• While differences remain, the U.S.-Japan tariff framework is taking shape.
• China and the U.S. are expected to implement a three-month extension of trade talks, during which no additional tariffs will be imposed and no further escalation of the trade conflict will occur.

With the August 1 tariff deadline approaching its final days, President Trump stated that global tariff rates will likely fall between 15% and 20%, reducing near-term uncertainty and prompting a pullback in safe-haven capital.

Analyst Views:

Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered:“Gold’s fundamental support remains intact. The metal will continue to take cues from the direction of the U.S. dollar. Rising U.S. debt and potential tariff volatility could keep gold in focus.”

Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at JPMorgan Chase:“Central banks have not abandoned gold. Rising geopolitical uncertainty could help fuel a sustained recovery in gold demand throughout 2025.”

Goldman Sachs forecasts:Gold could rise to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with a potential move to $4,000 by mid-2026.

Citigroup notes:Gold is expected to trade in a $3,100–$3,500 range during Q3 2025, with the supply-demand gap peaking in the third quarter. By the second half of 2026, prices could retreat to $2,500–$2,700 per ounce.

[Intraday gold price chart, source: TradingKey]