Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD jumps above $4,600 on Fed uncertainty, safe-haven flows
- Gold price surges to around $4,600 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Criminal investigation into Fed’s Powell sparks independence crisis, boosting Gold price.
- Trump threatened a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran.
Gold Price (XAU/USD) jumps to near $4,600 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal extends the rally after retreating from a fresh record high of $4,630 in the previous session amid uncertainty and geopolitical risks. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for December will take center stage later on Tuesday.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said on Sunday that he’s under criminal investigation, sparking an independence crisis and triggering a flight to safety across global markets. Powell stated that the US Department of Justice had issued subpoenas to the central bank and threatened a criminal indictment related to his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June 2025 concerning a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's Washington, D.C., headquarters. Powell called the threats a "pretext" aimed at putting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.
Additionally, tensions between Iran and the US could boost traditional safe-haven assets such as Gold. US President Donald Trump threatened repercussions if Iranian authorities target civilians, while Tehran warned the US and Israel against any intervention. On Monday, Trump announced that any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on any business conducted with the US.
Traders brace for the US CPI inflation data on Tuesday. The headline and core CPI are expected to see a rise of 2.7% YoY in December. Any signs of hotter inflation in the US could lift the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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