EUR: Strong Euro is getting the ECB's attention – ING

Markets are starting to hear a little more from the European Central Bank about the strength of the Euro (USD), ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

USD is set to remain vulnerable over the weekend

"The general view seems to be that a quick EUR/USD move through 1.20 would be a concern. For reference, the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters back in 2023 asked the question about what a 10% appreciation in EUR/USD would have on macro forecasts."

"The mean response is that it would shave 0.5% off headline CPI in the first year and knock about 0.3% off real GDP. The ECB's response to EUR/USD strength will therefore be carefully crafted remarks centered on the ECB not having an exchange rate target but being fearful that further euro strength could see inflation undershoot its target and prompt deeper rate cuts."

"In our experience, central bank concern over macro-driven moves in exchange rates are slow to turn trends around. So don't expect the ECB to put a lid on EUR/USD at 1.20 should it get there. Expect EUR/USD to trade well within yesterday's 1.1810 to 1.1720 range today. But the dollar will remain vulnerable over the weekend to news of higher tariff rates coming in again."