USD/JPY: BoJ is coming up next – OCBC

Geopolitical escalation in Middle East saw safe haven proxies, including JPY strengthening last Friday. USD/JPY was last at 144.12 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

2-way trades likely in the interim

"USD/JPY touched a low of 142.80 before rebounding. Surge in oil prices saw UST yields rising, leading to USD/JPY’s rebound. BoJ MPC on Tue may complicate JPY’s safe haven story. Governor Ueda’s recent comments that BoJ is still some distance from 2% goal gave the impression that the timing of next hike may be pushed back."

"Although the timing of BoJ policy normalisation may be deferred, policy normalisation is not derailed. Broadening price pressure and wage growth suggest that BoJ’s next course of action remains a hike but in the interim, BoJ may prefer to stay on hold due to uncertainties on outlook and tariff."

"Nevertheless, we remain watchful for any surprise hawkish tone as that may pose downward pressure on the pair. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose. 2-way trades likely in the interim. Support at 144 (21, 50 DMAs), 142.50 levels. Resistance at 145.10, 145.50 levels."