Australian Dollar loses ground ahead of RBA policy decision
- Australian Dollar extends its losing streak as traders adopt caution ahead of the RBA interest rate decision.
- The RBA is anticipated to leave its Official Cash Rate at 3.6% unchanged on Tuesday.
- The US Dollar gains ground as expectations for a December Fed rate cut fade.
Australian Dollar (AUD) declines against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, continuing its losing streak for the fifth successive session. The AUD/USD pair remains subdued ahead of the November interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) due later in the day.
The RBA is widely expected to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.6% on Tuesday. The rate decision is scheduled for release at 03:30 GMT, alongside the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and the quarterly economic forecasts, followed by a press conference from RBA Governor Michele Bullock.
Melbourne Institute reported on Monday that the TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose 0.3% month-on-month (MoM) in October, easing slightly from a 0.4% gain in September but marking the second consecutive monthly increase. Meanwhile, the annual Inflation Gauge rose 3.1%, edging higher from the previous 3.0%.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released Building Permits data, which rose 12.0% MoM, after falling 3.6% in August and beating market expectations of a 5.5% growth. ANZ Job Advertisements fell 2.2% month-on-month in October, following a revised 3.5% drop in the previous month. This marked the fourth straight monthly decline.
US Dollar gains ground amid cautious tone surrounding Fed outlook
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its winning streak and trading around 100.00 at the time of writing. The Greenback receives support from the cautious sentiment surrounding the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy stance for December.
- Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 65% chance of a cut in December, down from 94% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
- Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 48.7 from 49.1 in September. This reading came in weaker than the market expectation of 49.5.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week during the post-meeting press conference that another rate cut in December is far from certain. Powell also cautioned that policymakers may need to take a wait-and-see approach until official data reporting resumes.
- The US Fed delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut last week, lowering its benchmark rate to a range of 3.75%–4.0% in a 10–2 vote. The decision was not unanimous, as Fed Governor Stephen Miran supported a larger 50-basis-point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voted to keep rates unchanged.
- Traders adopt caution due to the prolonged government shutdown, which could fuel economic concerns in the United States (US). The US government impasse has now entered its sixth week with no easy endgame in sight amid a deadlock in Congress on the Republican-backed funding bill.
- The White House announced that China will suspend extra export controls on rare earths and end probes into US semiconductor firms, in exchange for the US pausing some tariffs and canceling a planned 100% levy on Chinese exports.
- US President Donald Trump said he plans to block China from accessing Nvidia’s most advanced semiconductor technology, according to CBS News. His remarks could reignite US-China trade tensions, which had eased after his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping last Thursday during the APEC Summit in South Korea.
- China's RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 50.6 in October from 51.2 in September. The market forecast was for a 50.9 print. It is important to note that any shift in China’s economic conditions could also affect the Australian dollar (AUD), given the close trade ties between China and Australia.
- The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI for Q3 rose 1.0% and 3.0% on a quarterly and annual basis, respectively. Markets estimated an increase of 0.8% QoQ and 2.7% YoY in the quarter to September. The monthly Consumer Price Index jumped by 3.5% YoY in August, compared to the previous reading of a 3.0% increase. This figure came in hotter than the expectation of 3.1%.
- Australia’s hotter-than-expected Q3 inflation and August CPI data reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). RBA Governor Bullock noted that the labor market remains somewhat tight, despite the unexpected rise in the unemployment rate.
Australian Dollar remains below 0.6550 as price momentum weakens
The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6530 on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is in a consolidation phase, trading sideways within a rectangle pattern. The recent move below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) signals a weakening of short-term price momentum.
The primary support appears at the psychological level of 0.6500. A break below this level will prompt the AUD/USD pair to navigate the region around the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.6460, followed by the five-month low of 0.6414.
On the upside, the immediate barrier lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6540. Further advances would reinforce the short-term price momentum and support the AUD/USD pair to test the crucial level of 0.6600, followed by the rectangle’s upper boundary around 0.6630. A break above the rectangle would signal a bullish bias and support the pair in exploring the region around the 13-month high of 0.6707, recorded on September 17.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.10% | 0.07% | 0.28% | 0.18% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.18% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | -0.12% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.01% | -0.04% | 0.16% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.09% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.02% | -0.01% | 0.18% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | -0.01% | 0.01% | -0.02% | -0.03% | 0.16% | 0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.07% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.20% | 0.10% | |
| NZD | -0.28% | -0.18% | -0.16% | -0.18% | -0.16% | -0.20% | -0.10% | |
| CHF | -0.18% | -0.08% | -0.06% | -0.09% | -0.07% | -0.10% | 0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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