USD/CHF retreats below 0.7950 with Fed speakers on focus
- The US Dollar retreats from 0.7970 highs against the Swiss Franc and turns negative on the day.
- Investors have trimmed US Dollar longs, awaiting speeches from Fed officials.
- In Switzerland, the SNB's monetary policy decisions are likely to set the CHF's near-term direction.
The US Dollar rally against the Swiss franc was capped at 0.7970 on Monday, and the pair retreated to levels right below 0.7945 as market sentiment deteriorated during the European Session, with all eyes on a slew of Fed speakers due later today.
Five Fed Governors are scheduled to give further details about the bank´s monetary policy plans. The main focus will be on the newest member, Stephen Miran, who is expected to delve into the reasons that prompted him to dissent from the committee and vote for a 50 basis points rate cut last week.
These speeches will frame the Chairman Powell's conference, due on Tuesday. The tone of Powell’s press release contrasted with the bank’s dovish projections and provided a fresh impulse to the US Dollar. Investors will be very attentive to his comments on Tuesday to corroborate their bets on back-to-back rate cuts.
In Switzerland, the main focus is on the SNB’s monetary policy decision, due on Thursday. The bank is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate at 0%. The market will be eager to know the chances of cutting further into negative territory amid the recent weak macroeconomic data and the uncertainty around the trade relations with the US.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
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