GBP/USD edges higher as US data weakens, Fed credibility questioned
- GBP/USD climbs 0.07% to 1.3305 as US Dollar loses traction.
- US ISM Services PMI dips to 50.1, missing forecasts of 51.6.
- Market doubts Fed data reliability after BLS chief’s firing and Kugler’s resignation.
- BoE expected to cut rates to 4% at August 7 meeting with 90% probability.
The GBP/USD advances during the North American session, registers modest gains of over 0.07% following last week’s dismal jobs report and soft data reported earlier. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.3305.
Sterling gains mildly amid softer US ISM data and mounting uncertainty over Fed independence following key resignations
Economic data from the United States (US) revealed that business activity in the services sector, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The Services PMI dipped to 50.1 in July from 50.8 in Jun, below forecasts of a rise of 51.6. Earlier reported data showed that the US trade deficit reached nearly a 2-year low.
In the meantime, market sentiment shifted sour as traders began to question the credibility of the upcoming US economic data releases, after the removal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This, along with the sudden resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, created an uncertain environment for the Fed’s independence and data reliability.
US President Donald Trump said that Scott Bessent is not interested in being nominated to become the next Fed Chair.
Across the pond, the UK S&P Global Services PMI fell to 51.8 from 52.8 in July, due to a decline in new orders, the most significant decline since November 2022. Traders' eyes are on the August 7 monetary policy decision by the Bank of England (BoE), which is expected to lower interest rates, with odds standing at 90% that the Bank Rate will be 4%.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Given the fundamental outlook, the GBP/USD is set to consolidate at around the 1.3300 figure, capped on the upside by the August 4 high of 1.3330 and the 100-day SMA at 1.3369. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is aiming higher, the index remains below its neutral line. Hence, any upticks could be viewed as opportunities for sellers to enter the market.
On the flipside, the GBP/USD first key support is 1.3300. If surpassed, the next area of interest would be the August 1 cycle low of 1.3141.
British Pound PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.10% | -0.19% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.19% | 0.24% | |
| EUR | -0.10% | -0.25% | 0.09% | -0.08% | -0.10% | 0.08% | 0.12% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | 0.25% | 0.33% | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.33% | 0.37% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.09% | -0.33% | -0.15% | -0.18% | 0.02% | 0.23% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | 0.08% | -0.17% | 0.15% | -0.04% | 0.18% | 0.20% | |
| AUD | -0.13% | 0.10% | -0.15% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.19% | 0.22% | |
| NZD | -0.19% | -0.08% | -0.33% | -0.02% | -0.18% | -0.19% | 0.02% | |
| CHF | -0.24% | -0.12% | -0.37% | -0.23% | -0.20% | -0.22% | -0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
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