The risk-reward is tilted back towards fading the recent US Dollar strength, analysts at TD Securities say.
We think we're getting close to good levels to start selling the USD again.
Although US data remains strong, the Fed can use the trends in core PCE to justify the start of rate cuts. The Fed wants to engineer a soft landing, which allows it to emphasize disinflation over growth now. Fed text and comments analysis remains dovish too.
After the recent correction higher in the USD, it does not look as cheap or oversold. It now looks more balanced versus not just macro drivers but also our positioning indicators. This means that the USD's move higher should now start to see greater resistance and risk-reward tilts towards fading the USD strength.