WTI sticks to modest intraday losses around $61.70, moves little after mixed Chinese data
- WTI kicks off the new week on a softer note, though the downtick lacks bearish conviction.
- The uncertainty over Iran-US nuclear talks and geopolitical risks supports the black liquid.
- A modest USD weakness also acts as a tailwind for the commodity amid mixed Chinese data.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on Friday's move higher and attract fresh sellers at the start of a new week. The commodity, however, recovers slightly from the Asian session low and currently trades around the $61.70-$61.65 region, still down nearly 0.40% for the day.
The uncertainty over the outcome of Iran-US nuclear talks and rising tensions between Estonia and Russia, following the latter's detention of a Greek-owned oil tanker on Sunday, turned out to be key factors acting as a tailwind for the black liquid. In fact, US special envoy Steve Witkoff said on Sunday that any deal with Iran must include an agreement not to enrich Uranium.
Apart from this, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) selling lends additional support to Crude Oil prices and helps limit the downside. Against the backdrop of the growing market acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates further this year, a surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating prompts fresh selling around the USD on Monday.
The upside for Crude Oil prices, however, seems limited in the wake of mixed Chinese macro data, which offsets the optimism led by the US-China trade truce for 90 days. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before traders start positioning for an extension of the recent goodish recovery from the $55.00 neighborhood, or the monthly swing low.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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