GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bullish outlook remains in play above 1.3550
- GBP/USD gathers strength to near 1.3555 in Monday’s early European session.
- The positive view of the pair prevails above the key 100-day EMA with the bullish RSI indicator.
- The immediate resistance level emerges at 1.3650; the first support level to watch is 1.3415.
The GBP/USD pair gains traction to around 1.3555 during the early European session on Monday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD). Trade uncertainty dampens sentiment among US businesses, prompting traders to reassess the Greenback's safe-haven status and act as a tailwind for the major pair. Traders await the UK employment data for fresh impetus, which is due later on Tuesday.
Technically, the constructive outlook of GBP/USD remains in place as the major pair is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 60.50, displaying bullish momentum in the near term.
On the bright side, the first upside barrier emerges at 1.3650, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. A decisive break above this level could pick up more momentum and aim for 1.3748, the high of January 13, 2022. Further north, the next resistance level is seen at 1.3834, the high of October 20, 2021.
In the bearish case, the low of May 29 at 1.3415 acts as an initial support level for GBP/USD. A breach of this level could drag the major pair toward 1.3250, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. The additional downside filter to watch is 1.3110, the 100-day EMA.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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