NZD/USD gathers strength to near 0.5750 on upbeat Chinese PMI, Fed rate cut bets
- NZD/USD holds positive ground near 0.5745 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
- China’s RatingDog Services PMI declined to 52.1 in November, stronger than expected.
- Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week remain elevated.
The NZD/USD pair gathers strength near 0.5745 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) after the Chinese economic data. Traders await the release of the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data later on Wednesday for fresh impetus.
Data released by RatingDog on Wednesday revealed that China's Services PMI eased to 52.1 in November from 52.6 in the previous reading. This reading came in better than the estimation of 52.0. The Kiwi remains strong in an immediate reaction to the upbeat Chinese data.
Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its benchmark Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25%, as widely expected. However, policymakers signalled an end to the easing cycle as the economy showed early signs of recovery. This, in turn, provides some support to the NZD against the USD.
Weaker US Manufacturing PMI, a cooling labor market, and dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers might weigh on the Greenback and create a tailwind for the pair. Financial markets anticipate that the US central bank will deliver a 25 bps interest rate reduction at its upcoming meeting on December 9-10, 2025. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows an approximately 89% chance of a Fed rate cut next week.
Traders brace for the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data on Wednesday. These reports could offer some hints about the labor market and the US economy. In case of the stronger-than-expected outcome, this could help limit the USD’s losses in the near term. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation data, which might offer clues about the US interest rate path.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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