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What the Anthropic IPO Means for Amazon and Alphabet Investors

Source The Motley Fool

Key Points

Anthropic has said it plans to make its initial public offering this fall.
Amazon and Alphabet hold significant stakes in the leading AI lab.
They also have a lot to gain from increased liquidity and Anthropic raising fresh capital.
These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires ›

Anthropic is preparing for a record-breaking IPO this fall. The company is reportedly seeking a $2 trillion valuation with the potential to raise $100 billion from newly issued shares. Both would be records, smashing the $1.77 trillion/$86 billion IPO from Space Exploration Technologies in June.

A successful IPO near that $2 trillion mark would be great news for existing shareholders. That might include you if you own shares of Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) or Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL). The two tech giants hold substantial stakes in Anthropic, which could significantly boost their fourth-quarter earnings, depending on the timing of the IPO.

Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »

The Amazon and Alphabet logos side by side.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

How an Anthropic IPO could impact big tech earnings

Both Amazon and Alphabet hold large stakes in Anthropic. The two companies marked their investments in the AI lab to market at the end of the second quarter, during which Anthropic raised new capital at a valuation of $965 billion. That round included fresh capital injections from both Amazon and Alphabet, with commitments to add more upon meeting certain milestones.

During the second quarter, Amazon said the value of its marketable equity securities increased $50.5 billion, mostly related to its stake in Anthropic. Likewise, Alphabet recorded net gains of $99 billion last quarter, driven by the SpaceX IPO and Anthropic's latest capital raise.

If Anthropic doubles its value from its last raise with its IPO, both Alphabet and Amazon are poised to book tens of billions, if not hundreds of billions, in additional unrealized gains on the stock and convertible notes they hold. That will boost their generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) net income. Additionally, they'll be able to liquidate their investments after the lockup period expires, providing capital to build new AI data centers.

Perhaps more important for both cloud computing giants is that the IPO would give Anthropic substantial new capital to invest in improving its AI models. As a large customer of both Google Cloud and Amazon Web Services, this could benefit both companies. Alphabet in particular has taken steps to strengthen its ties to Anthropic, including selling its custom AI accelerator chips directly to the AI lab.

While the unrealized gains will impact both companies' reported earnings, the greater long-term impact could come from the additional capital they provide to both cloud providers and Anthropic itself. That's why the highly anticipated IPO is worth keeping an eye on for investors in the tech giants.

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Adam Levy has positions in Alphabet and Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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