Here's Why SpaceX Stock Could Finish 2026 Above $200

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) have been rising after they hit lows of less than $105 in early August. But at around $150, the stock is still nowhere near the highs of more than $200 that it reached in June, shortly after it went public.

At $2 trillion in market cap, the company, which more commonly goes by just SpaceX, isn't cheap, and it has plenty of bullishness already priced into its valuation.

Investors certainly have high hopes for its future. And any sign that the company's making progress toward its goals can ignite a rally. Here's why I think SpaceX stock can potentially finish the year back above $200.

Image source: Getty Images.

The company is getting close to its goal of $100 billion in annual recurring revenue

One of SpaceX's ambitious goals for 2026 is to finish this year with $100 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR). That would be a huge milestone for the space company, which in 2025 reported $18.7 billion in total revenue.

SpaceX has been locking up multiple compute deals in its artificial intelligence (AI) segment. Alphabet has secured a deal for compute power from SpaceX, agreeing to pay the company $920 million per month, which translates into $11 billion in annualized revenue. SpaceX has also made a similar deal with Anthropic.

The company's CFO Bret Johnsen says that SpaceX is "on track" to hit the ARR target as planned.

Reaching the milestone would be a huge achievement for SpaceX, and it could give investors confidence in the company's ability to achieve its lofty targets. While sending people to Mars and putting data centers in space are its most ambitious targets, getting to $100 billion in ARR would be a huge win at such an early stage for the business, and could give the space stock a significant boost in the near term.

Why getting back to $200 isn't a sure thing for SpaceX's stock

It's possible for SpaceX to hit $200 by the end of the year, but I don't think it's necessarily probable. Not only would the company need to hit its ARR goal, but investor sentiment would also need to be strong for not only SpaceX but the overall tech sector. That's not a guarantee, and that's evident with SpaceX stock struggling to gain much traction. While it has been rising of late, the euphoria isn't there anymore -- the stock is still down 34% from its high.

There's still ample risk with the stock and revenue is just one part of the equation. Investors should also consider valuation and earnings. Those are still reasons to avoid the stock, as SpaceX remains incredibly overvalued and remains deeply unprofitable; it's likely too risky for most investors to own.

David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.