Prediction: Women's Sports Won't Save Nike Stock

Women's sports are going through a golden era of rapid growth in the U.S., with rising fan interest in women's professional basketball, women's soccer, and more. Most investors might expect that bigger audiences for women's sports will be good news for athletic apparel stocks like Nike (NYSE: NKE). After all, Nike signed WNBA star Caitlin Clark to a record-breaking signature shoe deal in April 2024.

But although the rise of women's sports is great news for sports fans, it might not be good news for NKE shareholders. The company's stock has lost more than 50% of its value in the past two years since Caitlin Clark's shoe deal was announced. It's not Clark's fault -- NKE shares are down 68% in the past five years.

Let's look at a few big reasons why rapid growth in women's sports won't be enough to come to the rescue for Nike investors.

McKinsey forecasts massive growth in women's sports revenue

A McKinsey research report from August 2025 found that women's sports revenue grew 4.5 times faster than men's sports during 2022-2024. The report also predicted that the women's sports market could grow by 250% in the next few years, with total revenue for rightsholders rising from $1 billion in 2024 to $2.5 billion in 2030.

Women's sports could be an even bigger opportunity than that. McKinsey research estimates the size of the U.S. sports market (men's and women's sports) at $75 billion as of 2024, with women's sports making up $1 billion, or 1.3% of that total market size. Even if women's sports never grow to a 50-50 split of that total market, there is massive room for growth.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why Nike investors shouldn't count on a "Caitlin Clark effect"

Some investors might believe that a "Caitlin Clark Effect" could help Nike boost its growth and profits. What if there's an untapped market of women's sports fans who will buy more basketball shoes?

Nike seems to be seeing some sales increases from women's sports -- according to its latest annual report, the company's women's business in the Basketball category expanded 50% in 2025. However, the company is also facing some big headwinds. Even if Nike can sell more athletic shoes to women's sports fans, it might lose market share in other products.

A recent analyst report from Piper Sandler warned that the athleisure market is getting saturated with too many similar-looking brands and that most growth is being driven by new brands instead of legacy companies like Nike. In its most recent quarterly earnings report, Nike reported year-over-year revenue growth of 3% in North America (where most of the women's sports boom is happening) but got hit by a 7% decline in sales in Greater China.

Even if there is continued strong growth in the women's sports industry, that won't necessarily drive big gains in Nike stock. I don't rate NKE as a buy.

Ben Gran has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nike. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.