SpaceX vs. Rocket Lab: Which Space Stock Has More Room to Run?

SpaceX, the aerospace and AI company founded by Elon Musk, could go public soon in the world's largest initial public offering with a valuation of up to $1.75 trillion. That buzz is also casting a spotlight on SpaceX's smaller competitor, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB). Should you chase SpaceX when it goes public, or will Rocket Lab be a better play on the same market?

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What do we know about SpaceX?

SpaceX filed for its IPO at the beginning of April, but that filing is confidential. Based on estimates from Payload, the Wall Street Journal, and The Information, its revenue reached $2.3 billion in 2021, $4.6 billion in 2022, $8.7 billion in 2023, $13.1 billion in 2024, and $18.5 billion in 2025. That's an impressive 68% four-year CAGR.

SpaceX generates most of its revenue from Starlink satellites and internet services. The rest of its revenue mainly comes from its Falcon rockets and related launch services. Its customers include telecom companies, NASA, the U.S. Department of Defense, international space agencies, and commercial satellite companies. SpaceX also recently acquired xAI, Musk's smaller AI firm that created the Grok generative AI platform. Still, that acquisition reportedly made it unprofitable this year -- compared to its $8 billion net profit in 2025.

SpaceX has completed over 600 rocket launches and currently operates a constellation of more than 10,000 Starlink satellites. That makes it the world's largest producer of rockets and low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites by a wide margin.

Can Rocket Lab keep up with SpaceX?

Rocket Lab competes against SpaceX in the reusable orbital rocket market. It's already launched its flagship Electron rocket, which carries smaller payloads than SpaceX's Falcon rockets, 85 times. It plans to launch its second rocket, the Neutron, to carry heavier payloads by the end of this year. Over the next few years, it plans to evolve into an "end-to-end" space company by growing its higher-margin Space Systems segment (which produces spacecraft, satellites, and subsystems), launching more "ride-share" services to carry third-party payloads, and expanding its Photon satellite bus platform, which bumps satellites into their correct orbits.

Rocket Lab already serves major customers such as NASA, the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA), the Swedish National Space Agency, Capella Space, Kinéis, and BlackSky Technology. From 2021 to 2025, its annual revenue surged from $62 million to $602 million, but its net losses widened.

From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect its revenue to more than double to $1.6 billion. They also expect it to turn profitable in 2027 and grow its net income to $160 million in 2028.

Which space stock will have more upside?

Neither of these space stocks is cheap. At its rumored IPO valuation of $1.75 trillion, SpaceX would trade at 95 times its 2025 sales. Rocket Lab's current market cap of $40 billion values it at 66 times last year's sales. However, SpaceX's superior scale and profitability (after it digests xAI) could justify that premium valuation and make it a better long-term play than Rocket Lab.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends BlackSky Technology and Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.