Why Bitcoin Could Keep Falling Even if AI Stocks Recover – 2026 EOY Outlook

Wall Street’s AI trade suffered a brutal setback last week as investors questioned technology valuations and the threat of tighter AI regulation. Bitcoin followed, falling to $75,000.

But something interesting happened next. The Nasdaq rebounded 1.1% on Friday. Bitcoin, meanwhile, remained near $76,000 over the weekend, well below its earlier recovery above $80,000.

Will Bitcoin’s bearish outlook remain longer than the stock market?

Risk-off hit both tech and crypto this week.BTC slipped below $76K, while CAP gained 34.5% against a mixed crypto market.Next up: October CPI.⬇️ See what moved and what markets are watching next:https://t.co/MqwaTuhqDm pic.twitter.com/siE5f0wqUA

— Bitunix (@BitunixOfficial) November 6, 2026

The AI Crash Exposed Bitcoin’s Growing Vulnerability

The selloff hit semiconductor stocks particularly hard. According to Bitunix’s November 6 market research, Nvidia lost 15% over the reporting week, while Intel and Micron suffered considerably steeper declines.

The immediate concern was political. Democrats’ midterm victory increased expectations of tighter oversight of AI development.

A proposal to ban artificial superintelligence, introduced before the election, has added to regulatory uncertainty. Its passage remains far from certain.

For Bitcoin, the bigger concern is financial. Technology stocks and cryptocurrencies both depend heavily on investors’ willingness to take risks. 

If money continues leaving speculative assets, Bitcoin could face selling pressure even without another AI-stock crash.

Why Crypto Initially Held Up Better Than Expected

Interestingly, Bitunix’s research found that cryptocurrencies were relatively resilient during the initial stock-market decline.

Of the 300 leading tokens tracked on the exchange, roughly half recorded weekly gains. Their median return was just -0.06%.

Some smaller assets performed much better. CAP surged 34.54%, despite its underlying protocol’s total value locked falling from nearly $300 million to around $180 million.

The divergence suggests selective speculative buying continued even as broader confidence weakened.

However, as Bitunix analysts warned, the market still “lacks a clear catalyst for sustained upside.”

Every 4 years same patternMidterm year → brutal Bitcoin dump.Year after → massive recovery.2014: -57% → 2015: +34%2018: -73% → 2019: +92%2022: -64% → 2023: +155%2026 midterms are here$BTC is under pressureYou know what that means for 2027 pic.twitter.com/wGwBhRon6a

— ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ (@DeFiTracer) November 2, 2026

Why Bitcoin Could Face More Selling

The latest institutional data adds another concern.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.28 billion in net outflows between November 2 and November 6. Friday alone accounted for approximately $412 million in withdrawals.

That selling pressure persisted even as technology shares began recovering.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has become another obstacle. Friday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report increased expectations of another interest-rate hike.

Higher interest rates can weaken demand for speculative investments while making safer, yield-bearing assets more attractive. Even a recovery in AI valuations may struggle to offset those pressures.

BREAKING: Market expectations for another 25 basis point rate hike December rise to a new high of 80% after the October jobs report.The US economy added +100,000 more jobs than expected last month. pic.twitter.com/M0tWINRj1C

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 6, 2026

What Could Bring Bitcoin Buyers Back?

The next test is the US inflation report on November 10.

Softer inflation could ease pressure on the Fed and support risk assets. Persistent inflation would strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy.

Beyond that report, investors should watch whether Bitcoin ETFs return to sustained inflows and whether Bitcoin can recover above its recent $80,000 level.

Until those conditions improve, a Wall Street rebound may offer Bitcoin temporary relief without establishing a lasting recovery.