Bitcoin Returns to $79,000 Level. Prediction Markets Bullish on Breaking $80,000 in April

TradingKey - Bitcoin prices have strengthened again, breaking through $79,000 amid strong bullish sentiment; however, investors should be wary of this week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

On April 27, Bitcoin ( BTC) prices continued their rally, breaking through $79,000 again after a five-day interval. Today, Bitcoin rose nearly 2%, peaking at $79,450 and approaching last Wednesday's (April 22) high. However, can Bitcoin sustain its rally this week and break through the key psychological level of $80,000?

Prediction market data suggests a high probability of Bitcoin breaking $80,000 in April. According to Polymarket data, the probability of Bitcoin surpassing $80,000 by the end of April surged 61% today to reach 74%, indicating strong bullish sentiment among traders.

Betting volume on whether Bitcoin will break $80,000 in April, Source: Polymarket

While Polymarket data merely reflects the preferences of its users and may not represent the broader market, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index cannot be ignored, as it is the most transparent window into U.S. compliant capital flows. For the past 17 days, the index has remained positive, meaning Bitcoin prices on Coinbase have consistently traded higher than on Binance, indicating robust demand from U.S. institutional investors such as hedge funds, corporate treasuries, and ETF issuers.

On April 26, VanEck analysts also pointed to bullish signals for Bitcoin from various angles, noting that negative funding rates and a declining hash rate typically signal strong returns. Yesterday, Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush pointed out that Bitcoin's average funding rate over the last 7 days turned to -1.8%, the lowest level since 2023; over the last 30 days, Bitcoin's hash rate fell to the 16th percentile, marking the most concentrated pullback since 2021.

Yesterday, Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy ( MSTR ), once again released Bitcoin Tracker information. Based on previous experience, the release of such content by MicroStrategy signals an accumulation of Bitcoin, with specific details—including quantity and price—disclosed the following day. This move undoubtedly adds to the momentum, further catalyzing bullish sentiment in the market.

Despite Bitcoin's resilient price performance, attention must be paid to this Thursday's FOMC interest rate decision (2:00 AM Beijing time), as current market expectations are unfavorable for Bitcoin. According to CME FedWatch data, there is a 100% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in April, which could cause Bitcoin to pull back after a brief break above $80,000.