CFTC probes $950 million oil bet placed before Trump’s Iran ceasefire post

US regulators in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are digging into a $950 million oil bet that was made in futures market CME and ICE before Donald Trump posted about an Iran ceasefire.

According to Bloomberg, the CFTC is looking at like two trading episodes over about two weeks when trading volume rallied to records moments before major announcements. The request also covers Tag 50 data, which can identify all companies or entities behind the trades.

When the conflict began, disruption to Middle East supply sent oil prices rallying. Then later, prices swung hard as traders tried to guess when tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz might resume.

CME said, “We vigorously surveil our markets and work closely with the CFTC to oversee trading activity.” The exchange added, “Importantly, any review of market behavior must include all venues, including prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi that list related products with little to no visibility.”

In her Wednesday statement, Senator Elizabeth Warren said the trades looked like insiders rigging the market. “These suspicious oil trades look like an appalling example of insiders rigging the market.”

She added, “The probe is a start, but CFTC and the SEC should do their job and investigate anything that looks like insider trading by Trump Administration officials.” That pulled the SEC into the fight, even though the main review is being run by the CFTC.

US exporters ship record oil volumes as war disruption drives fuel prices higher

The investigation comes as the physical oil market is under strain. US oil exports surged to a record last week as buyers in Asia and Europe rushed to replace crude lost from the Middle East during the Iran war.

US crude shipments rose to 5.2 million barrels a day, up a little more than 1 million barrels a day from the prior week, based on government data published Wednesday. The US also exported about 7.5 million barrels of refined products, including gasoline and fuel oils, as foreign buyers searched for other suppliers during shortages.

Those export gains, along with a sharp drop in crude imports into the US, pulled inventories lower when many analysts had expected the opposite. The decline helped flip US oil prices higher on Wednesday morning, sending them up by almost 1% at $92.12 after earlier losses.

Analysts at JPMorgan said stronger competition for US barrels could push American prices higher and add to inflation pressure created by the Iran war. They also warned that the export boom and the ongoing loss of Middle East supply because of the Hormuz blockade could lift US petrol and diesel prices and raise political pressure on the Trump administration to curb exports.

Meanwhile, Trump’s Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the US “feels good” about the chance of a deal, but no date has been set for more talks. In Tehran, a delegation from Pakistan, which has acted as a mediator in US Iran talks, arrived for more discussions.

Since the war began on February 28, average petrol prices have risen by about $1 to $4.10 a gallon, while diesel at $5.63 sits close to its record $5.81, according to data gotten from AAA.

During the 2024 campaign, Trump promised to cut energy costs for consumers in half within a year of taking office. Instead, electricity, home heating oil, and petrol have all climbed faster than inflation.

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