TradingKey Daily Market Briefing: Peace Talk Hopes and Strong Bank Earnings Lift US Stocks, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Hit New Highs, Memory Chip Sector Pulls Back

TradingKey - Market expectations for a potential extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, coupled with strong bank earnings, propelled both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs, with the Nasdaq marking its 11th consecutive session of gains.

In terms of individual stocks: NVIDIA (NVDA) rose for 11 consecutive trading days, setting a new record for its longest winning streak; influenced by Musk's announcement that Tesla (TSLA) successfully taped out its AI5 chip, Tesla shares surged 7.6%, though they still lagged behind the Nasdaq's gains over the 11-day period. The software sector became a primary support for the broader market, as Microsoft (MSFT) climbed 4.6%, Salesforce (CRM) rose nearly 4%. Storage chip stocks saw a sharp pullback, with SanDisk (SNDK) falling 5.6%, Micron declining 2.03%; Broadcom (AVGO) advanced following the announcement of its partnership with Meta, with the news driving shares up over 4%.

Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC) rose 4.5% and nearly 2%, respectively, on the back of stellar first-quarter results.

Despite chip equipment manufacturer ASML raising its full-year sales guidance, its shares still fell over 4%. Luxury giants Kering and Hermès posted first-quarter results that missed expectations and were impacted by Middle East tensions, with their shares plunging over 9% and 8%, respectively.

The U.S. Dollar Index failed to rebound, extending its losing streak to eight days.

In commodities: spot gold fell more than 1%, while spot silver eased 0.7%; earlier during Asian trading hours, silver had gained over 1% and gold edged up 0.65%.

Market Headlines

Iran says it cannot confirm whether the ceasefire will be extended; the White House denies requesting an extension. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that it remains to be seen whether the U.S. demonstrates genuine sincerity, noting that bilateral dialogue continues through Pakistan. Iran maintains that the U.S. should fulfill existing ceasefire commitments rather than requesting extensions or making excessive demands. Meanwhile, the White House Press Secretary described the negotiations as ongoing and constructive, expressed optimism about reaching an agreement, and emphasized Pakistan's role as the sole mediator.

The U.S. and Iran are nearing a framework agreement to end the conflict as nuclear talks achieve a major breakthrough; a two-week ceasefire extension is being considered. The Pakistani Army Chief's visit to Iran stems from "significant progress" in nuclear negotiations, with both the U.S. and Iran having "agreed in principle" to negotiate. In the latest round of meetings, representatives moved closer to a framework agreement to end the conflict, with a new round of face-to-face consultations possible in the coming days. If a framework agreement is reached, an extension of the ceasefire is expected. However, several U.S. officials cautioned that significant differences remain and a final deal is not guaranteed.

The Israeli Prime Minister stated that strikes against Hezbollah will continue and warned that the conflict with Iran could resume. The Vice Chairman of Hezbollah's Political Council stated that the group will not accept a repeat of the 2024 Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, where Lebanon complied while Israel evaded its responsibilities. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that since hostilities could resume, Israel is "prepared for any scenario" while engaging in negotiations with Lebanon, with the primary goals being the expulsion of Hezbollah and achieving a lasting peace. Iran's Parliament Speaker remarked that the comprehensive ceasefire in Lebanon is a victory for the Axis of Resistance.

Elon Musk announced that Tesla's AI5 chip has successfully taped out, with dual-chip performance rivaling Nvidia's Blackwell. Tesla has achieved a major breakthrough in self-developed chips, as Musk announced the completion of the tape-out for the next-generation AI5 chip, with mass production expected in 2027 at Samsung and TSMC facilities in the U.S. The AI5's performance is up to 40 times that of its predecessor, and its dual-chip configuration offers computing power comparable to Nvidia's Blackwell, while maintaining advantages in cost and power consumption.

Morgan Stanley's Q1 revenue and profit both hit record highs. Morgan Stanley's first-quarter net revenue reached $20.6 billion, up 16% year-over-year; net income was $5.6 billion, up 29%; and earnings per share were $3.43, a 32% jump from the same period last year. Driven by heightened market volatility and increased client activity, equity trading net revenue reached $5.15 billion, surging 25% year-over-year and setting a new record.

Pimco takes down Blue Owl's entire $400 million bond issue, stating private credit is "not a systemic risk." Amid pressure in the private credit industry, Pimco exclusively snapped up Blue Owl Capital's entire $400 million bond issuance at a 6.5% yield, with a new-issue concession significantly above market averages. Pimco CIO Ivascyn stated that private credit does not pose a systemic risk, noting that "what we're seeing is disappointment and lower-than-expected returns," and predicted liquidity stress will create more selling opportunities, providing entry points for ample capital.

Google's stake in SpaceX revealed for the first time, with an IPO potentially yielding a $100 billion return. As of the end of 2025, Google held approximately 6.11% of SpaceX; following the merger of SpaceX and xAI in February, Google's stake was diluted to roughly 5%. If SpaceX goes public at a $2 trillion valuation, the book value of this early investment could reach $100 billion.

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