Pi Coin Needs a 4% Push to Turn Recovery Into Rally — But a 5% Risk Still Lingers

Pi Coin price is down about 1.5% today, but its 7-day gain of 6.1% still beats the rest of the crypto market. It is also up around 15% this month, while Bitcoin has fallen nearly 20%. That shows how negatively correlated Pi has been, one of the reasons it keeps holding green candles even in weak conditions.

But the move has been stuck in a narrow band between $0.24 and $0.22 since November 17. The chart now shows a tight 4–5% window where Pi Coin could break either up or down, depending on how a few signals resolve.

Large Buyers Still Supporting the Bounce

Pi Coin has one strong positive signal: bigger wallets continue to support the move.

Between November 19 and November 24, the price made a lower high while the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) made a higher high. CMF measures whether big wallets are adding or exiting. This is a bullish divergence, meaning accumulation is happening even as price slows.

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CMF is also holding above its trendline and above zero. As long as it stays above that line, large-wallet support remains in place, and the bounce stays alive.

This is the only clean bullish signal the Pi Coin price has right now.

Retail Strength Is Weak, And Volume Support Is Missing?

Smaller buyers are not showing the same energy.

Between November 21 and November 24, the Pi Coin price made a higher low, but the Money Flow Index (MFI) made a lower low. MFI tracks dip-buying strength by combining price and volume. This is a bearish divergence, showing weaker retail buying.

Volume confirms the same risk.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) is still below its key trendline near –1.97 billion. OBV measures whether fresh volume is entering the market. Until it breaks above that trendline, PI does not have enough participation for a strong breakout. And, a dip under the ascending trendline could weaken the volume support further.

In short, big wallets remain supportive, but retail buying is still weak. Volume remains neutral and might be the indicator that decides the next Pi Coin price move.

Pi Coin Price: A 4% Breakout Or A 5% Breakdown

PI must break $0.24 to turn this recovery into a real rally. That level requires a 4.38% move and opens the door toward $0.26 and $0.29 if volume strengthens.

But the breakdown is close as well. A fall under $0.22 exposes $0.21. Dropping below $0.22 would mark a 5.49% decline and align with the bearish MFI divergences and neutral OBV.

Right now, Pi Coin sits at a point where both outcomes remain equally close:

• CMF keeps the bounce alive and can help with the 4% upmove
• MFI and OBV keep pressure on the downside, exposing the 5% risk.

A clean break above $0.24 confirms strength. A clean drop under $0.22 confirms weakness. Either way, the Pi Coin price range could break soon.