USD/JPY Price Forecast: Holds onto gains near monthly high above 157.00
- USD/JPY trades broadly firm above 157.00 amid the US-Israel war with Iran.
- Higher oil prices have pushed the JPY on the backfoot.
- Investors await BoJ Ueda’s speech for fresh cues on Japan’s interest rate outlook.
The USD/JPY pair ticks down to near 157.25 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, but is still close to its over-a-month high of 157.75 posted on Monday. The pair remains firm as the US Dollar’s (USD) safe-haven demand has strengthened amid war between the United States (US)-Israel and the Iran.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, clings to Monday’s gains near 98.50.
Soaring oil prices due to Middle East tensions have weighed heavily on the Japanese Yen (JPY), given that Japan is one of the largest importers of oil in the world.
On the domestic front, investors await the speech from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, which is scheduled at 04:00 GMT. Investors will look for fresh cues on Japan’s interest rate outlook.
In the US, investors await the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for February, which will be released on Friday.
USD/JPY technical analysis
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In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 157.23. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds well above the 20-day exponential moving average near 155.70, signalling that the short-term uptrend from the 152.00 area remains in place. The pair is also trading above the broken descending resistance line that was breached around 155.50, turning that breakout area into a tactical pivot that underpins the advance. RSI near 60 confirms positive momentum without overbought conditions, suggesting buyers retain control while upside pressure stays orderly.
Initial support emerges at the former trend-line break zone around 155.50, followed by the recent swing low at 154.70 if a deeper pullback unfolds. A sustained break below 154.70 would expose the 153.30 region, where prior consolidation preceded the latest push higher. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 157.50, ahead of the recent peak near 158.40. A daily close above 158.40 would extend the bullish sequence and open the way toward the 159.10 region, where the broader downslope originated and where sellers would be expected to reassert pressure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
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