USD/CHF consolidates above 0.7980 with markets looking for direction
- The US Dollar holds recent gains above 0.7900 against the Swiss Franc.
- Hopes of a Sino-US trade deal have eased risk aversion, undermining safe¡-havens like the CHF.
- In Switzerland, the deflationary CPI figures keep pressuring the SNB to cut rates into negative levels.
The US Dollar consolidates Tuesday’s gains and remains trading within a narrow range above 0.7950, after bouncing from the 0.7910 area on Tuesday. Investors, however, are showing a cautious mood, awaiting US CPI data later this week and next week’s Fed monetary policy decision.
News that US President Donald Trump will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to de-escalate trade tensions, and the positive tone of the US president towards the Asian country, have contributed to calm markets, adding pressure on safe-haven assets such as the Swiss Franc.
Nevertheless, US Dollar rallies remain limited as investors brace for a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week and likely anticipate further monetary easing in December, as concerns about the labour market have offset fears of inflationary risks stemming from trade tariffs.
In Switzerland, data released this week showed a moderate improvement in the trade surplus, but the Swiss Franc remained on its back foot. Consumer prices are showing a deflationary trend, which keeps pressure on the SNB to cut interest rates into negative levels.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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