Prediction: SpaceX's Starlink Doubles Again to 24 Million Subscribers Before 2027 Ends

Starlink, the satellite internet service of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), ended June with 12.0 million subscribers -- twice the count of a year earlier, and up 1.7 million in the second quarter alone.

Growth like that typically slows as the base gets bigger. Starlink's has been speeding up.

Here's my prediction: it doubles again. I think Starlink reaches 24 million subscribers by the end of 2027. That looks like a stretch for a service already this big. After all, the next 12 million subscribers need to come on top of everyone who has already signed up. But the company's own numbers do most of the work, and the required pace is near what Starlink just delivered.

Image source: Getty Images.

What would doubling again take?

Going from 12.0 million subscribers to 24 million by the end of 2027 means gaining 12 million over six quarters, or about 2 million a quarter. Starlink added 1.7 million during the second quarter. The subscriber count was at 6.0 million in June 2025, reached 10.3 million by the end of March, and hit 12.0 million three months later. That works out to average additions of 1.5 million a quarter over the last year, with the latest quarter running ahead of the average.

In other words, the prediction asks Starlink to do modestly better than it just did, and to maintain that pace through the end of next year.

Price might be one reason to think it can. Starlink's average revenue per user was $66 a month in the second quarter (and for the first half as a whole), down from $85 a year earlier. Whatever mix of plans and markets lies behind that decline, the service now brings in meaningfully less per subscriber than it did a year ago.

And subscriber growth accelerated alongside the lower average.

More capacity is on the way

A satellite internet service can only sell the bandwidth its constellation can provide, so capacity is the practical limit on subscriber growth.

The tech company is spending against exactly that. The company reported research and development spending in its connectivity segment rose partly to fund its next-generation V3 satellites, which it expects to meaningfully increase how much broadband its network can deliver.

And the rollout isn't waiting on anyone else's rockets. SpaceX flew 78 launches in the first half of 2026 and sent just over 1,000 metric tons into orbit, most of that mass Starlink satellites bound for the constellation.

What would 24 million be worth?

The connectivity segment, home to Starlink, is already SpaceX's profit engine. Second-quarter connectivity revenue rose 66% year over year to $4.3 billion, and the segment's income from operations rose 79% to $1.7 billion. That operating profit amounted to just under 39% of the segment's revenue, up from about 36% both a year earlier and in the first quarter.

So the segment earns more money on more subscribers, even though Starlink takes in less per subscriber than it did a year ago.

At 24 million subscribers and the current $66 monthly average, subscription revenue alone would run to about $19 billion a year, before any hardware sales or enterprise contracts. That is more than the whole segment produces today at its second-quarter pace.

Notably, the subscriber count excludes a growing piece of the segment entirely. Enterprise and government revenue (billed under negotiated contracts, so it sits outside the subscriber count) more than doubled year over year to $1.8 billion in the second quarter. My 24 million call captures none of that.

Will Starlink make it all the way to 24 million before 2027 ends? I think it will. Two million a quarter asks a little more of the service than the 1.7 million it just delivered, not a lot more, and the satellites required to serve those subscribers are already being funded.

Of course, additions might slow as Starlink works through its easiest markets. A further step down in pricing would also make each new subscriber worth less. But the second quarter delivered the opposite on both counts -- faster additions at a stable average.

Whether to buy the growth stock is another question.

At about $148 as of this writing, SpaceX has a market value near $2 trillion -- a valuation that already appears to assume years of growth like this. So, while I expect the subscriber milestone to arrive, I'd hold off on buying shares here.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.