Wall Street Strategist Tom Lee Says Ethereum Is Going to $6,000 By December. Here's Why He's Wrong.

Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has been on an absolute heater of late. Since June 30, Ethereum has been up a heart-pounding 60%, making it one of the top-performing assets in the world during that time period.

So is this type of blistering performance enough for Ethereum to double in value by the end of the year? Wall Street strategist Tom Lee thinks so. In fact, he predicted that Ethereum will hit a price of $6,000 by December. But just how likely is that?

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The path to $6,000 for Ethereum

According to Lee, two important conditions must be met for his Ethereum price prediction to come true. And from my perspective, neither one is very likely.

First, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has to reach $150,000. That's highly unlikely, given that Bitcoin is currently trading for just $77,000. Bitcoin will need to nearly double in value within just two months.

Moreover, Bitcoin will need to blow past its previous all-time high of $126,000 on its way to $150,000. According to the Kalshi online prediction market, there's only a 5% chance of that happening by the end of the year.

But let's say Bitcoin pulls off the impossible and suddenly skyrockets to $150,000 as an early holiday gift for investors. Well, a second event then needs to take place.

Lee points to the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio, which needs to increase from its current level of 0.03 to 0.04. During the 2021 cycle peak, this ratio was as high as 0.08. So this prediction is not nearly as outlandish as the first one.

If you think about Ethereum and Bitcoin in terms of currencies (and they are!), then the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio is simply an exchange rate. So if that exchange rate shifts from 0.03 to 0.04, it essentially means Ethereum has appreciated against Bitcoin, the same way that the U.S. dollar might appreciate against the euro.

A super-catalyst for Ethereum?

To make all that happen, there needs to be some sort of super-catalyst, and Tom Lee thinks he's found it: passage of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act ("Clarity Act") later this year. If it passes, then it could make it much easier for institutions to buy, hold, and use Ethereum. And it would likely attract a lot of sidelined capital into crypto.

This, too, is open for debate. Right now, all the focus in Washington, D.C. is on midterm elections, and the Clarity Act might not pass until 2027. That's far too late for Ethereum to make a serious run at the $6,000 price level in December.

Ultimately, I just don't see any way that Ethereum will hit $6,000 by December. That said, Ethereum remains a long-term buy-and-hold investment target. But if you're looking for a crypto about to supernova, it's best to look elsewhere.

Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.