Predicting the Value of a $10,000 Bet on SpaceX by 2030

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), more commonly known as SpaceX, completed the largest IPO in history in June, opening its first day of trading at a price of $150 per share. As many expected, the stock has been extremely volatile in the months since, surging as high as $225.64 and slumping at one point to a low of $104.83.

Despite that, SpaceX remains one of the more popular growth stocks. It is, after all, a space and AI company led by Elon Musk. If you're considering a big bet on SpaceX, here's a look at what a $10,000 investment in it could be worth by 2030.

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A reasonable growth case for SpaceX

SpaceX's revenue has been growing quickly, and if it meets analysts' expectations, that trend will continue. It reported revenue of $7.8 billion in the second quarter, a 92% year-over-year increase. Among Wall Street analysts, the consensus estimate for SpaceX's full 2026 revenue is $44.6 billion, a 139% increase from 2025.

The company's connectivity segment, which primarily consists of the Starlink satellite broadband service, is currently its biggest revenue driver. Over the rest of the decade, that could shift to AI, an area where SpaceX is investing heavily. Goldman Sachs forecasts that SpaceX's revenue will reach $474 billion by 2030, with $322 billion of that sum coming from the AI business.

The bull case for SpaceX assumes that its AI spending will pay off and drive significant revenue growth. It also assumes the company continues to dominate the global satellite internet market with Starlink, which in Q2 doubled its subscriber numbers year over year to 12 million. It would also have to remain the leading provider of space launches in the U.S. -- it accounted for about 80% of the country's commercial rocket launches in 2025, according to statistics from the Federal Aviation Administration.

Risk factors

Although SpaceX is an exciting company, it also looks like one that could do poorly in a bear market, for a few reasons. The first is the valuation. It has a market cap of $2.0 trillion as of Sept. 10, meaning it trades at about 45 times its projected 2026 revenue of $44.6 billion. That kind of multiple can be sustainable in a bull market, but those premium valuations often collapse during downturns and bear markets, when investors become more risk-averse.

Given the amount it's spending on AI, SpaceX will be heavily hit if the growing fears that the AI sector is in a bubble turn out to be accurate. SpaceX is particularly vulnerable to a situation where an AI-related crash leads to a bear market, as it's both betting its future on AI and trading at an extremely high valuation. While I don't think there's an AI bubble about to burst, it's worth understanding what could happen to SpaceX in that worst-case scenario.

Here's what SpaceX stock could be worth by 2030

Assuming SpaceX executes well and achieves that revenue forecast of $474 billion by 2030, its stock should soar. If it maintains a valuation of 45 times sales, SpaceX will be worth $21.3 trillion. Under that scenario, a $10,000 investment made today would grow into a position worth $106,650, assuming no major share dilution.

However, I highly doubt SpaceX will be worth over $20 trillion by 2030. I think it's more likely that revenue growth continues, but not as much as projected, and that its sales multiple will compress. In an optimistic scenario, I could see it reaching a market cap of about $5 trillion by 2030, meaning a $10,000 investment today would be worth $25,000.

That said, there could also be a bear market that cuts its value in half or worse. The level of risk involved, relative to the somewhat limited upside, is why I'm not investing in SpaceX at its current valuation. An investment in it could work out well, but I'd rather wait and see, as I think there could be much better buying opportunities down the road.

Lyle Daly has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.