CoreWeave Stock Prediction 2026: A Doubling Opportunity for CRWV Stock After the Near-Halving?

TradingKey - CoreWeave (nasdaq: crwv) is one of the most closely watched next-generation cloud service providers (neocloud). Despite the stock's 46% drop in November following the release of its Q3 2025 earnings report, many market analyses still anticipate that CRWV will achieve remarkable growth in 2026, with gains potentially exceeding 50%.

What is CoreWeave?

CoreWeave is an AI infrastructure company founded in 2017, primarily providing services for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) workloads with specialized cloud infrastructure services, essentially catering to companies that require substantial computing power such as large model companies and autonomous driving firms. This allows clients to leverage hyperscale, continuous GPU clusters for model training and inference without the need to build their own data centers.

In the burgeoning field of next-generation cloud service providers (or 'new cloud' providers), CoreWeave currently holds a commanding lead, significantly surpassing competitors in terms of computing power scale, order backlog, and revenue.

The "New vs. Old" Cloud War

Traditional cloud service providers, exemplified by the triumvirate of Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform, typically offer full-stack services, including hardware like GPUs and CPUs, as well as services such as databases and AI platforms. In contrast, as a new cloud provider, CoreWeave does not operate as a general-purpose cloud platform, but rather specializes in providing computing power, primarily focusing on GPU hardware support.

It is no exaggeration to say that CoreWeave was purpose-built for AI training. Its core business is to provide optimal GPU clusters for processing AI workloads, predominantly featuring NVIDIA's Blackwell series and H200. Regarding its technology stack, to enable AI models to directly interface with hardware, it employs Kubernetes-native bare-metal deployment, eliminating the virtualization layer. Furthermore, it utilizes NVIDIA's costly InfiniBand interconnect technology between servers to mitigate communication bottlenecks.

This vertical integration not only demonstrates CoreWeave's competitive moat—its extreme suitability for the exploding demand in AI training—but also highlights its extraordinary relationship with NVIDIA. CoreWeave has not only received investment from NVIDIA but has also forged a strategic partnership, resulting in a very tight integration of computing power. This allows CoreWeave preferential access to allocations of NVIDIA's most advanced chips.

While CoreWeave specializes in GPU computing power, it is currently expanding into areas such as machine learning and AI software platforms.

The New Cloud vs. Computing Power Leasing

New cloud service providers, and traditional computing power leasing platforms also differ. Legacy server leasing providers primarily serve traditional industries such as healthcare and finance. In contrast, some data center operators do not offer GPUs, software, or operating systems; instead, they own data center facilities and provide space and power.

CRWV Stock Price History: From a 350% Surge to a Massive Correction

On March 28, 2025, CoreWeave officially listed on Nasdaq.

Initial Public Offering: IPO Price Fell Below Issuance Price, Followed by Rebound

CoreWeave's final IPO offering price was $40 per share, significantly below the initial expected offering range of $47-$55. On its first day of trading, the stock opened at $39, and fell as much as 6% during the day. The market viewed this IPO as a bellwether for the AI industry's trend, and its rocky start reflected subdued market confidence.

This was primarily because the U.S. stock market had not yet recovered from the DeepSeek impact in early 2025, with market concerns that inexpensive, efficient models like DeepSeek would reduce demand for top-tier computing power. Furthermore, it was also influenced by worries about tariffs and inflation; the Nasdaq index dropped nearly 2.6% that day, and the overall weakness in U.S. equities also put pressure on new listings.

However, on its third day of trading, CoreWeave's stock price began to rise sharply, with a gain of 36%.

Late April - Late June 2025: Period of Rapid Growth

During this period, CoreWeave's stock price surged, reaching on June 20th a historical high closing price of $183.58 and an intraday high of $187, an increase of over 350% from its offering price. Its market capitalization exceeded $85 billion, making it one of the world's fastest-growing AI unicorns by market value.

The main reasons are as follows. CoreWeave's Q1 financial results, released in May, were notably strong, with revenue hitting a record high of $981.6 million, and its order backlog increasing to $25.9 billion. Furthermore, it raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $4.9 billion to $5.1 billion, significantly above market expectations.

The earnings report also announced an additional contract from OpenAI. In March, OpenAI signed a five-year agreement worth up to $11.9 billion with CoreWeave, under which CoreWeave would provide dedicated computing power to OpenAI. In May, the two parties added an expansion agreement valued at $4 billion, further signaling that CoreWeave has become the most crucial computing power provider apart from Microsoft Azure.

CoreWeave also received strong endorsement from Nvidia, which disclosed on May 16th that it had increased its stake to 7%, stimulating a single-day stock price surge of up to 26%.

In addition, CoreWeave announced plans to build multiple data centers in Europe, indicating that the company is actively expanding its capacity to meet surging orders.

From a market environment perspective, after late April, progress in US-China trade negotiations boosted sentiment in the US stock market, particularly in the AI and semiconductor sectors. This backdrop also favored CoreWeave, an AI stock.

July-October 2025: High-Level Volatility

CoreWeave's stock price fluctuated sharply between $90 and $140, primarily due to market concerns over CoreWeave's escalating losses and its plan to acquire Core Scientific at a high valuation.

November 2025 - Present: Significant Correction

By the end of December 2025, CoreWeave's stock price had fallen from approximately $130 in early November to around $75. During its November earnings call, CoreWeave lowered its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2025, mainly due to delayed data center construction leading to unfulfilled deliveries; furthermore, it significantly reduced its capital expenditure. This sparked market skepticism about the company's future certainty. On the day following the earnings announcement (November 14), CoreWeave's stock price dropped by 14%.

In addition to its weak financial performance, CoreWeave also faced public criticism from renowned Wall Street short-seller Jim Chanos. CoreWeave extended the depreciation period for its GPUs, and a longer depreciation period results in lower annual book costs, thereby inflating adjusted EBITDA and net income presented on financial statements. This practice was effectively intended to conceal losses that were more severe than what was reported on the books. Subsequently, the news of CoreWeave's major shareholder, Magnetar Financial, reducing its stake was disclosed, and in the bond market, the pricing of CoreWeave's credit default risk increased, both of which exacerbated the selling pressure on the stock. The stock hit a six-month low of $63.8 on December 17th.

CRWV Stock Crash Explained: The Trust Crisis Behind the Plunge

CoreWeave's stock price plummeted, nearly halving from around $130 to a low of $63.80 within two months, not merely due to superficial reasons such as market concerns about the AI bubble or the company's weaker-than-expected earnings report. Essentially, this reflects a shift in market sentiment towards comprehensive distrust in CoreWeave. .

If CoreWeave's sharp rise in the first half of the year was based on the market's strong confidence in its prospects, then the year-end halving of its stock price indicates that the stock's performance could no longer justify itself or maintain market trust.

The Unraveling of the High-Growth Myth

As previously mentioned, prominent Wall Street short-seller Jim Chanos publicly highlighted CoreWeave's "accounting manipulation," specifically that the company masked actual losses by extending the depreciation period for its GPUs. On the surface, this represents a lack of integrity in its financial disclosures. However, the more severe issue is that it... ...shattered the company's high-growth illusion. .

Gil Luria, an analyst at DA Davidson, unsparingly pointed out that CoreWeave's balance sheet is arguably among the worst in the tech industry to date, with its (Q1) operating profit margin at only around 4%, which is less than half of the company's interest rate on debt. .

According to its financial data, although CoreWeave's revenue has continued to grow since going public, its growth rate has gradually slowed, while losses have steadily widened. This is primarily because CoreWeave has incurred significant debt to build capital-intensive data centers, leading to massive and increasing quarterly interest expenses. CoreWeave's total debt (as of Q3) reached approximately $14 billion, with interest expenses rising from about $75 million in Q1 to approximately $125 million in Q3.

With slowing revenue growth, persistent debt drag, and widening losses, the high-growth myth is clearly in jeopardy. From the financial reports, only Q1 and Q3 of 2025 showed positive operating profit margins, at 4.2% and 0.88% respectively. If the impact of extended GPU depreciation periods were excluded, Q3's extremely low profit margin could immediately turn negative, and Q1's profit margin would also be significantly discounted. Jim Chanos's public criticism has effectively pulled CoreWeave's few relatively strong core financial metrics below the passing mark.

Furthermore, Gil Luria also pointed out that while many companies have low profit margins in their initial stages, they can gradually recover profits through scaling. CoreWeave's problem is that it already possesses hyperscale assets and revenue yet remains unable to achieve profitability. This implies that CoreWeave's issues are not simply inherent to its development stage but rather intrinsic flaws of its capital-intensive operating model itself.

The Danger of "Chips-for-Debt" Leverage

CoreWeave's core business model relies on a high-leverage strategy: borrowing the maximum amount of money with minimum collateral to scale operations. CoreWeave's most valuable assets are the GPUs preferentially acquired through its partnership with Nvidia. By pledging Nvidia GPUs, CoreWeave has been able to borrow enormous sums far exceeding its equity capital from banks and financial institutions, thereby creating a powerful leverage effect.

This strategy was effective when its GPU assets retained their value. However, short sellers' attacks primarily highlighted CoreWeave's depreciation period issue, explicitly stating that CoreWeave masked losses by extending depreciation periods. This also implied that the market should consider the rapid depreciation of GPUs due to technological obsolescence, suggesting a re-evaluation of its asset values.

Against this backdrop, CoreWeave's high-leverage strategy fully exposed its inherent high risks, triggering market concerns: should banks demand a re-evaluation of the collateral value, the company might be required to post significant additional margin, which could deal a fatal blow to its already weak cash flow.

The $55.6 Billion Backlog: Asset or Liability?

According to financial data, CoreWeave's backlog orders have consistently grown since its IPO, doubling from $25.9 billion to $55.6 billion between Q1 and Q3. While this financial metric has historically been considered the most direct indicator of a company's prospects, after CoreWeave announced delays in data center delivery during its Q3 earnings call, the market grew suspicious: does CoreWeave truly possess sufficient capability and capital to deliver on its commitments? To what extent can the book value of future revenue actually be converted into tangible cash?

At the practical execution level, to fulfill orders and generate revenue, CoreWeave's every step, from purchasing chips to constructing data centers, is cash-intensive. This has led the company to become heavily indebted even before generating profits. Should CoreWeave, under these circumstances, be unable to deliver on time and receive payments, its weak cash flow and precarious balance sheet make a liquidity crunch highly likely. In essence, this "cash-intensive, pay-later" model has exacerbated market concerns about its potential default.

Default is not the worst-case scenario. CoreWeave's customer concentration is extremely high; in terms of client share in its backlog, OpenAI signed three consecutive contracts with CoreWeave totaling $22.4 billion within 2025, representing 40% of the total backlog. Assuming CoreWeave experiences delivery delays to OpenAI or other major clients, these clients could very well transfer their orders to other suppliers, thereby leading to a significant reduction in CoreWeave's orders.

4 Reasons Why CRWV Stock Could Rebound in 2026

While all the aforementioned reasons explain the halving of CoreWeave's stock price, it is worth noting that markets, when in a panic, always tend to sell off with the most pessimistic outlook. In fact, there is a world of difference between CoreWeave's liquidity crisis risk being 1% versus 0.1%, not to mention the distinction between what is possible and what is inevitable.

CoreWeave's current stock price may reflect an overpricing of its default risk and a crisis of confidence. Investors looking for opportunities in this stock should instead consider a rational re-evaluation.

Computing Power Remains a Hard Currency

According to public data, by 2026, market demand for memory is projected to grow by approximately 35%, whereas supply will only increase by about 23%. This imbalance will create a supply-demand gap, potentially leading to the highest price surge in decades. While this does not directly equate to the demand in the data center market where CoreWeave operates, it indicates robust demand in the computing power market, which is also favorable for CoreWeave.

This phenomenon indicates that regardless of whether an AI bubble bursts in the future, current facts suggest that as long as CoreWeave builds data centers, they will be rented out without difficulty, as computing power remains a valuable resource. Clients like OpenAI, which require vast amounts of dedicated, high-performance computing power to meet their massive inference and training needs, ensure the sustainability of CoreWeave's core business.

High Switching Costs for AI Giants

Although CoreWeave's Q3 financial report showed delivery delays and the possibility of contract non-performance, it is important to note that for clients like OpenAI, temporarily canceling contracts with CoreWeave would be extremely costly.

Furthermore, clients must also account for sunk costs. Clients such as OpenAI have invested not only capital but also significant engineering resources in their collaboration with CoreWeave. Should they abandon CoreWeave and switch suppliers, it would mean all of the client's distributed training environment , communication optimization and middleware configurations would have to be re-adapted to a new cloud platform, potentially causing them to fall behind competitors in the large model race. In the AI competition, time is more precious than money; whoever launches a large model first will be at the top of the AI food chain.

From this perspective, CoreWeave's clients are highly likely to honor their contracts and make timely payments. For CoreWeave, the remaining challenges are simply how to improve efficiency and resolve delivery bottlenecks. The possibility of a capital chain break is not as high as the market's pessimistic expectations suggest.

Securing Blackwell to Form a Technological Moat

Although market rumors suggest that CoreWeave, as a "real estate developer" in the AI industry, lacks significant technological content, it should be clarified that its technological barrier lies not in specific chip technology, but rather in its engineering capabilities for large-scale GPU clusters and its high compatibility with the Nvidia ecosystem.

For instance, compared to the traditional Ethernet architecture used by conventional cloud providers (such as AWS), CoreWeave boasts a large-scale parallel computing architecture. This specialized cluster reduces communication latency and is difficult for competitors to surpass in the short term, as such engineering expertise requires years of accumulated large-scale deployment work. Furthermore, clients can directly run code on CoreWeave's bare-metal hardware, minimizing performance loss to near zero.

Regarding data center facilities, CoreWeave's newly constructed data centers in 2025 will fully adopt an all-liquid cooling architecture, a feat currently unachievable by the vast majority of computing power providers. This architecture also positions CoreWeave as one of the few suppliers in the market capable of plug-and-play deployment for Nvidia GB200 NVL72 clusters. This cluster is comprised of Nvidia's newly launched Blackwell (GB200) chips, which have a single-rack power consumption exceeding 120kW, making them impossible to cool effectively using traditional air-cooled data centers.

The NVIDIA "Safety Net"

As Nvidia's "favorite son," CoreWeave possesses priority allocation rights for Nvidia's latest chips, an advantage that is exceedingly difficult for other competitors to obtain.

Furthermore, CoreWeave's technology stack is almost tailor-made for the Nvidia ecosystem, maximizing the performance of its GPUs. Nvidia has even officially certified CoreWeave as one of its few "Elite Cloud Partners." This deep integration ensures smoother computing operations between CoreWeave, Nvidia, and other companies within the "Nvidia chain," eliminating integration costs.

Additionally, Nvidia has even pledged to backstop CoreWeave. The two parties signed a $6.3 billion computing power agreement in 2025, under which Nvidia committed to purchasing CoreWeave's idle computing power in the coming years.

2026 CRWV Stock Price Forecast: Target $128.75

According to TradingKey's stock rating system, 32 analysts have assigned a target price of $128.758, implying a 71% upside from the stock's latest closing price of $74.92 (as of December 29, ET).

While CoreWeave's stock price could see significant growth in the new year, its actual performance will depend on the company's results in the following areas.

1. Profitability

Given CoreWeave's dismal operating margins and continuously widening losses since 2025, the market anticipates the company to move closer to profitability in 2026. Should the core financial data in its earnings reports indicate a significant improvement in CoreWeave's operating margins, or the generation of positive cash flow capable of covering interest expenses, or a substantial reduction in interest expenses, the stock price would react more favorably than expected.

2. Order Delivery Progress

2026 is poised to be a pivotal year for CoreWeave's deliveries, with the most crucial being projects related to NVIDIA's Blackwell chips. Due to NVIDIA's chip production adjustments and delays in data center construction, a large number of projects originally scheduled for delivery and revenue recognition in 2025 have been postponed to 2026.

In 2026, CoreWeave is tasked with delivering GB200 NVL72 liquid-cooled racks to OpenAI, and the computing regions it provides for OpenAI in the United States (e.g., Texas and Nevada) will officially commence operations. For Meta, CoreWeave is required to deliver tens of thousands of Blackwell GPUs. Regarding previously announced European data center construction plans, CoreWeave expects to deploy 120,000 Blackwell Ultra GPUs in its UK data center by the end of 2026; furthermore, CoreWeave's data center facilities constructed in Spain became operational in 2025, with plans to expand from the H200 to the Blackwell architecture in 2026. Additionally, NVIDIA's promised agreement to repurchase idle computing power is expected to be formally initiated.

The delivery of these projects will generate substantial cash flow for CoreWeave. Should the majority of these deliveries be completed within the year, it would significantly improve CoreWeave's financial position and stimulate market confidence.

Conclusion

CoreWeave, an undisputed leader in the "new cloud service provider" sector, has seen a significant decline since its Q3 earnings report in November, following a collapse in market confidence. However, overall, the current share price appears to overstate market concerns regarding its execution capabilities, growth prospects, and debt situation. Given the company's leading position, technological barriers, and robust growth in computing power demand, it is poised for another surge in 2026.