Ovintiv (OVV) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Date

Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025, at 10 a.m. ET

Call participants

• President & Chief Executive Officer — Brendan McCracken
• Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer — Corey Code
• Chief Operating Officer — Greg Givens
• Vice President, Investor Relations — Jason Verhaest

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Takeaways

• NuVista Energy Acquisition -- Announced acquisition of NuVista Energy (TSX:NVA) with immediate accretion on all financial metrics and a 10% increase in go-forward free cash flow per share.
• Anadarko Asset Divestiture -- Initiated sale process for Anadarko assets with proceeds designated for debt reduction, supporting the updated expectation of reducing net debt below $4 billion by 2026.
• Permian Well Inventory -- Added 170 drilling locations year to date in 2025 at $1.5 million per well, of which 90% are classified as premium, through targeted "ground game" acquisitions.
• Fiscal Q3 Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow -- Delivered $3.47 per share in cash flow and $351 million in free cash flow, both figures ahead of consensus estimates.
• Shareholder Returns and Debt -- Returned $235 million to shareholders via repurchases and dividends, and reduced net debt by $126 million.
• Production Levels -- Achieved production at the high end of guidance across all products, notably driven by efficiency gains in the Montney assets.
• Guidance Revision -- Raised full-year 2025 production guidance for all products without increasing capital expenditure; full-year 2025 capital remains $50 million below the original plan due to realized efficiencies.
• Expected fiscal Q4 Volumes and Capital -- Anticipated total production of approximately 620,000 BOE per day in fiscal Q4 2025 (including 206,000 barrels per day of oil and condensate) and $465 million in capital expenditures.
• 2025 Projected Cash Taxes -- Updated 2025 cash tax expectation to $75 million.
• Montney Expansion through NuVista -- The acquisition adds approximately 930 net 10,000-foot equivalent well locations and 140,000 net acres, extending Montney oil inventory to 15 years-20 years and lifting average Montney oil type curve by 10%.
• Synergy Capture -- $100 million in annualized, durable free cash flow synergies from the NuVista Energy combination, with about half from per-well capital savings of $1 million and remaining from operations, overhead, and enhanced scale efficiencies.
• Montney 2026 Production Outlook -- Pro forma 2026 Montney volumes expected at 400,000 BOE per day (85,000 barrels per day of oil and condensate, 1.75 Bcf per day of natural gas).
• Reduced AECO Exposure -- Following the transaction, AECO exposure for Montney gas drops from about 30% pre-transaction to about 25% pro forma in 2026, increasing price diversification.
• Montney Well Productivity -- NuVista Energy acquisition yields a 10% improvement in blended oil and condensate productivity for the Montney program type curve.
• Processing Capacity -- Secured 600 million cubic feet per day of additional long-term processing capacity from NuVista Energy, supporting potential oil and condensate growth of more than 5% per year for the next three to five years without major infrastructure spending.
• Leverage-Neutral Deal Structure -- The NuVista Energy transaction is funded with a balanced mix of equity and cash, preserving leverage neutrality at closing.
• Buyback and Capital Allocation Pause -- Share repurchases and bolt-on spending paused for two quarters pending transaction closing, with the base dividend maintained.
• Permian Inventory Cost Context -- Recent Permian transactions valued inventory up to $7 million per well, while Ovintiv (NYSE:OVV) continues adding at approximately $1.5 million per well year to date.
• Future Shareholder Returns -- Management reiterated commitment to increasing shareholder returns as the debt target is surpassed, with specifics on capital return framework to be updated post-divestiture.
• 2026 Pro Forma Guidance -- Guidance for 2026 is currently inclusive of Anadarko production and will be updated following divestiture timing clarity.

Summary

Ovintiv (NYSE:OVV) detailed the acquisition of NuVista Energy, asserting immediate accretion and a step change in both free cash flow and oil inventory duration, while simultaneously initiating the sale of its Anadarko assets to accelerate debt reduction and optimize shareholder returns. The company surpassed fiscal third-quarter targets with consistent per-share cash flow and implemented upward guidance revisions across production for full-year 2025 without increasing capital expenditure. Leveraging new operational synergies, management outlined stronger future pricing diversification and lower cost structures, notably decreasing AECO exposure and adding significant processing capacity for scalable oil growth. The strategic pause in share repurchases and measured funding mix reflects a disciplined approach to maintaining leverage neutrality through material portfolio reshaping.

• Greg Givens said, "We expect to capture about $100 million in durable annualized free cash flow synergies" primarily through capital and operational efficiencies associated with the NuVista Energy combination.
• Corey Code stated, "Despite the more than $10 per barrel drop we've seen in WTI oil prices since 2024, our cash flow per share has remained relatively consistent," underscoring business resiliency.
• Greg Givens commented that NuVista Energy’s realized pre-hedge gas pricing was "approximately 180% of AECO" year to date through Q2 2024, providing pro forma uplift in blended gas price realizations.
• The planned Anadarko divestiture is framed as a means to lower net debt below $4 billion by 2026 and a catalyst for a refreshed return-of-capital strategy.
• Specific operational improvements, such as AI-driven optimization centers and real-time remote well management, are expected to increase uptime and reduce production costs over time.

Industry glossary

• AECO: Alberta Energy Company -- Canadian natural gas price benchmark hub.
• Bcf: Billion cubic feet -- unit of measure for large volumes of natural gas.
• BOE: Barrels of oil equivalent -- combines oil, natural gas, and NGL volumes into a standardized energy equivalent.
• Cube development: Simultaneous drilling and completion of multiple stacked horizontal wells to maximize resource recovery within a section.
• Ground game: Opportunistic, often smaller-scale, off-market acquisitions to add strategic drilling inventory.
• LOE: Lease operating expense -- ongoing costs associated with producing oil and gas from existing wells.
• Paramount assets: Montney acreage acquired from Paramount Resources earlier in 2025, referenced for integration and synergy benchmarking in this transcript.
• ROCE: Return on Capital Employed -- a profitability ratio measuring earnings relative to capital invested.

Full Conference Call Transcript

Brendan McCracken: We are excited to talk to you today about another great quarter and some significant strategic actions we are taking to crystallize our vision of becoming the leading North American independent E&P. First, we've entered into an agreement to acquire NuVista Energy, who have built an incredible asset base in the core of the Alberta Montney oil window. This transaction is priced right, and we expect it to create exceptional value for our shareholders. It is immediately accretive on all financial metrics, highlighted by a 10% boost to our go-forward free cash flow per share.

It's leverage neutral at closing, it comes with valuable spare midstream capacity and valuable downstream gas price exposure, and it adds significant inventory in the high return oil window of the Montney. Second, we plan to commence the divestiture process for the sale of our Anadarko assets. Proceeds will be used for accelerated debt reduction, and we now expect to be below our $4 billion debt target by 2026. That will enable us to allocate a higher percentage of our free cash flow to shareholder returns. Third, we have continued to meaningfully add to our Permian Well Inventory at highly attractive prices by prosecuting our ground game strategy in the Midland Basin.

Finally, we continue to deliver exceptional performance across the organization, highlighted by our strong third quarter results and positive full-year 2025 guidance revisions. Collectively, these actions streamline and high-grade our portfolio, help us to meet or exceed our debt target, and uniquely position us with significant inventory duration in the two most valuable oil plays in North America, the Permian and the Montney. Before we get into the transaction details, Corey will give you a quick overview of our third quarter results.

Corey Code: Thanks, Brendan. We delivered another strong quarter, once again meeting or beating all of our guidance targets, setting us up for a strong finish to the year. We generated cash flow per share of $3.47 and free cash flow of $351 million, both beating consensus estimates. We also returned approximately $235 million to our owners through share buybacks and our base dividend and reduced net debt by $126 million. Production during the quarter was at the high end of our guidance ranges across all products. The beat was largely driven by the Montney as we continue to see strong efficiency gains from our recently acquired Carr and Wapiti assets.

We came in below the midpoint on capital, and we also matched or beat our guidance on all per unit cost items. Our third quarter results demonstrate the ongoing resiliency of our business and our constant pursuit of capital efficiency. Despite the more than $10 per barrel drop we've seen in WTI oil prices since 2024, our cash flow per share has remained relatively consistent. We've updated our full-year guidance to incorporate our year-to-date results and improved Q4 outlook by increasing our production targets for all products while maintaining our capital guide. As a reminder, we lowered full-year capital by $50 million last quarter to reflect our efficiency savings.

For full-year 2025, we now expect to deliver 10,000 BOE per day more production or $50 million less capital compared to our original plan. In the fourth quarter, we expect our total volumes to average approximately 620,000 BOEs per day, including about 206,000 barrels per day of oil and condensate. And capital is expected to come in at about $465 million. We've also adjusted our guidance to include an anticipated 2025 cash tax bill of about $75 million or about 50% less than we originally expected. This reflects the impact of an internal restructuring and evolving U.S. tax guidelines. We expect these reductions to be durable for the next several years.

In short, the team turned out another great quarter, and our 2025 outlook has improved once again. And I'll turn the call back to Brendan.

Brendan McCracken: We've been operating in the market for more than twenty years and in the Permian for over a decade. Bolstering our position in these two plays where we have a competitive advantage means we can continue to deliver durable returns for many years to come. Today's transaction marks a culmination in our strategy and our strategic positioning of the company to create a focused, high return, deep inventory portfolio. In total, since 2023, we've increased our Permian and Bakken drilling inventory by more than 3,200 locations at an average of $1.4 million per net 10,000-foot location. This inventory expansion has been unmatched by our peers and leaves us with one of the most valuable inventory positions in the industry.

This portfolio combined with our execution capability uniquely positions our company to generate superior returns for a long time to come. The NuVista acquisition checks all the boxes. It's accretive across all key financial metrics. The combination enhances our returns, adds scale, and we identified NuVista through an in-depth technical and commercial analysis of the Montney to identify the highest value undeveloped resource. That analysis highlighted the NuVista assets along with the Paramount assets we acquired earlier this year as being the most attractive and most complementary to our existing Montney position. NuVista sits in the core of the oil-rich Alberta Montney, directly adjacent to our existing operations in Carr, Wapiti, and Pipestone.

It is largely undeveloped, and it comes with significant processing capacity for future oil and condensate growth optionality, along with a downstream market access portfolio that provides valuable natural gas price diversification outside the AECO market. This is one of the highest quality undeveloped acreage positions in North America, and the overlap with our existing land base makes us the natural owner. While the assets are among the very best in the Montney on a standalone basis, the combination with our acreage is an ideal setup to unlock significant value.

This transaction will add approximately 930 net 10,000-foot equivalent well locations across 140,000 net acres, extending our Montney oil inventory to the higher end of our existing fifteen to twenty-year range. But this transaction does not just add inventory; it makes our overall Montney position better. Folding in NuVista will result in a 10% uplift to our average Montney oil type curve. Importantly, we are acquiring this high-quality inventory at a reasonable cost, for about $1.3 million per well location, which is very attractive compared to recent transaction metrics in the Lower 48.

The acquisition provides strong financial accretion and will result in immediate and long-term expansion in our per-share metrics, like cash flow, free cash flow, as well as increased ROCE. It will enhance our scale in the basin, increasing our 2026 expected oil and condensate volumes to about 85,000 barrels per day. The acquisition is expected to be leverage neutral at close, and we will retain ample liquidity and a strong balance sheet. With this transaction, we are creating a stronger business that will be even better positioned for near and long-term value creation. Let's dive in with some more details about the NuVista assets.

The team at NuVista has done a great job building a contiguous position in the core of the Montney oil window, and we're excited to combine it with our existing assets. The acreage pairs incredibly well with our existing land base. As you can see on the map, it could not be a better fit. The acquired acreage is about 70% undeveloped, with about 400 horizontal wells producing today. In 2026, we estimate the NuVista assets will deliver average volumes of about 100,000 BOEs per day, including about 25,000 barrels of oil and condensate and 400 million cubic feet a day of natural gas.

The transaction also comes with significant AECO price mitigation and diversified market access, which Greg will describe in more detail later in the presentation. I should point out that as a Canadian company, NuVista reports its volumes on a net before royalties basis and uses Canadian dollars as its reporting currency. So the numbers we quote would look different than their reported numbers. I'll now turn over the call to Greg to walk through more of the details.

Greg Givens: Thanks, Brendan. This transaction adds depth and duration to our premium inventory and further expands our leading Montney scale. The 620 premium low premium locations assume spacing of 10 to 14 wells per section, while the 310 upside locations assume up to 16 wells per section in the most prolific areas, plus additional infill opportunities. This is consistent with the development approach taken on our legacy assets, including the Paramount assets acquired earlier this year. Next year, we expect our pro forma 2026 total Montney production to average about 400,000 BOE per day, including 85,000 barrels per day of oil and condensate and 1.75 Bcf per day of natural gas.

We anticipate running an average of six rigs and one to two frac crews. We'll have further details to share on our 2026 capital program when we issue our full-year guidance in February. We are confident in our ability to unlock significant value from the NuVista assets using our proven development approach to generate superior asset-level returns and unmatched capital efficiency. We expect to capture about $100 million in durable annualized free cash flow synergies. About half of the synergies are from lower capital costs. We expect to achieve a savings of $1 million per well, consistent with our current Montney well cost, from streamlined facility design and faster cycle times.

The balance of the synergies come from other non-well capital savings, lower production costs driven by enhanced scale, connecting the wells to our Grand Prairie Operations Control Center where we use automation and in-house AI tools to optimize production and reduce downtime, as well as lower overhead. We are highly confident in our ability to realize these synergies given our strong track record of asset integration, which we demonstrated most recently by achieving our synergy target within the first six months of owning the Paramount assets.

We also see the potential for significant future savings from things like the ability to optimize our development plans, giving more available processing capacity, the ability to extend the lateral length of our wells that currently are constrained by lease lines, and the opportunity to further optimize our base production thanks to more integrated infrastructure. Enhanced value of our business is both structural and durable and will support increased direct returns to shareholders and higher return on capital employed. Our confidence in the quality of the new asset is evident in the strong well results from NuVista on this acreage. When we overlay NuVista's average well product from 2023 and 2024, the acquired assets have delivered impressive cumulative oil rates.

Integrating these assets into our Montney development plan results in a 10% oil and condensate productivity improvement for our previous program type curve. This is illustrated on slide 13, where the dashed orange line shows our previous repeatable program, and the thick orange line represents our new reputable program with the addition of the NuVista assets. This is a powerful demonstration of the underlying rock quality we're acquiring. The returns in the Montney oil window are competitive with the best plays in America. This is a result of the high well productivity, the low drilling and completion costs, the favorable royalty structure, and the fact that Canadian condensate generally receives very close to WTI pricing.

The economics are not dependent on a higher NYMEX or AECO price. Even at very modest AECO prices, these wells would still compete for capital in our portfolio. Our analysis of the pro forma assets shows that at the current strip pricing, we expect the NuVista assets to generate a 55% rate of return in 2026. The transaction comes with about 400 million cubic feet per day of natural gas. NuVista's downstream firm transportation agreements and hedging arrangements will lower our exposure to AECO on a pro forma basis. Ovintiv Inc.'s 2026 AECO exposure will go from about 30% of our Montney gas production pre-transaction down to about 25% pro forma.

NuVista's approach to AECO price mitigation is very similar to ours. They've done a great job of building out a diversified portfolio of firm transportation to markets across North America for about 250 million cubic feet per day of their natural gas volumes. They received strong realized pricing as a result. Year to date, as of the end of the second quarter, their pre-hedge gas price realization was approximately 180% of AECO. In addition, they have JKMLink contracts for 21 million cubic feet per day starting in 2027. They also have a strong financial hedging program with a current mark-to-market value of about $120 million. NuVista's significant processing capacity unlocks future growth optionality for us.

They have secured 600 million cubic feet per day of long-term raw inlet processing capacity, which when combined with our existing Montney processing will provide optionality for Ovintiv Inc. to grow our oil and condensate volumes by more than 5% for the next three to five years with no major infrastructure spending requirements. We've had good success collaborating with midstream partners to improve uptime at the facilities we inherited through the Paramount transaction, and we are confident we can continue to add value with future processing optimization efforts across the play. I'll now turn the call back to Brendan.

Brendan McCracken: Over the past several years, we've extended our Permian oil inventory runway to nearly fifteen years. It's no secret that the price of inventory has gone up dramatically since 2023, when we acquired over a thousand drilling locations in the Midland Basin for an average cost of about $2 million per well. We were ahead of the pack, and as recent transactions in the play value the inventory as much as $7 million per well. While many people think there are no opportunities left to add inventory and make a reasonable rate of return, our team has continued to focus on bolt-on, blocking, tackling across our acreage position.

Our Permian ground game has yielded impressive results, acquiring low-cost, high-quality inventory in the core of the play. Year to date, we've added 170 drilling locations, 90% of which are premium, for an average cost of $1.5 million per well. These transactions do not include any producing wells; they are inventory accretive, and they're offsetting our existing acreage and compete for capital immediately. We think there are more opportunities for reasonably priced bolt-ons in the play, and we will continue to take a value-driven approach to evaluating future prospects. We are funding the NuVista acquisition with a balanced mix of cash and equity.

The sources of cash include cash on hand, borrowings under our credit facilities, and proceeds from a term loan. We've chosen to pause our share buyback program for two quarters until around the time the transaction closes. This decision, coupled with our balanced financing mix, should result in a leveraged neutral transaction at the time of closing. During this time, we've also paused bolt-on spending, and our base dividend is unchanged. Debt reduction remains a key priority for us, and we remain committed to reaching our net debt target of $4 billion, or about 1x leverage at mid-cycle prices. As such, we have chosen to accelerate our pace of debt reduction and further streamline our portfolio through an asset disposition.

We remain committed to preserving our investment-grade credit profile, and we do not expect a negative impact on our investment-grade ratings because of the NuVista transaction. We plan to commence a sales process for our Anadarko assets that we expect to complete by the end of next year. The Anadarko is a highly valuable asset with a low decline rate, strong realized pricing, and low LOE. It punches above its weight in free cash flow generation. In the third quarter, it produced roughly 100,000 BOEs per day, including 29,000 barrels a day of oil and condensate.

Following the divestiture, we expect to be well below our net debt target, enabling us to allocate a greater portion of our free cash to shareholder returns. We continue to believe our equity is undervalued, and share buybacks continue to screen as a superior return on investment compared to investing in growth. We will provide more details on what a refreshed shareholder return framework could look like as we get closer to the sale of the assets. In summary, yesterday's announcement reflects years of work to build the portfolio that delivers on our durable return strategy, and we're excited to reach this milestone on behalf of our shareholders.

I'd like to recognize the efforts of our team to get us here. The NuVista assets and our ground game additions strengthen and expand our position in the top two oil basins in North America. The NuVista transaction is strongly accretive to our financial metrics, as well as our premium inventory depth. It significantly boosts free cash flow per share, provides significant oil growth optionality, valuable gas price diversification, and maintains our investment-grade rated balance sheet. Our track record of asset integration and operational excellence gives us confidence in our ability to deliver on the targets we've set out today. We have one of the most valuable premium inventory positions in our industry.

We have worked diligently to focus and high-grade our asset base while strengthening our balance sheet. We now have the achievement of our debt target firmly in sight, and with that, the inflection to deliver increased returns to our shareholders. Operator, we're now ready to open the line for Q&A.

Operator: We will now begin the question and answer session. Your first question comes from Kaleinoheaokealaula Scott Akamine with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Kaleinoheaokealaula Scott Akamine: Hey. Good morning, guys. Congratulations on the deal. I want to ask on the growth outlook for the NuVista asset. So NuVista was prosecuting a linear growth strategy through Decade, and that was really enabled by their investments in gas processing capacity. And the timing of that is pretty imminent. So my question is, how are you thinking about balancing or optimizing those plans versus your capital discipline approach to capital spend?

Brendan McCracken: Yeah. Kalei, thank you very much. Appreciate the comments and the questions. Yeah. So we're gonna fold this in and run our combined business in the same capital discipline way that you've seen us do over the last several years. And, really, what that has us thinking about is a couple of items. One, what's the macro? What's the demand for growth from large E&P companies? And I think today, it's fair and reasonable to say there is not a market demanding more barrels or BTUs be produced. And so that signal calls for a maintenance level investment.

And then the other signal, we look closely at is can we get better cash flow per share growth from buying our shares back or from adding activity in the field? And again, that signal is telling us it's a better option for our shareholders to buy the shares back to generate that cash flow per share growth. So when we incorporate these NuVista assets, we're gonna fold them into that same capital allocation strategy. And so we'll be slowing that rate of growth investment down and running the assets for free cash generation if the environment continues to be the same. Thank you. I appreciate that.

From my follow-up question, I want to ask about the 900 plus locations that you're acquiring with NuVista. Includes 300 upside locations. I want to understand the plan to de-risk those upside locations and whether that process is kind of already on the way considering that you're doing some similar work on the Paramount assets that you acquired earlier this year.

Brendan McCracken: Yeah. Kalei, great question. I'll probably get Greg to comment here too because you're exactly right. This acreage sits side by side with both our legacy Montney acreage, but also the now legacy acreage from the Paramount acquisition. And so the ability to take the learnings on well density across into this new acreage is giving us a lot of conviction, but Greg, you can comment on some of the specifics on timeline.

Greg Givens: Yeah. Thanks, Brendan. And thanks for the question, Kalei. You're spot on. You know, if you look at the map, this acreage just really nicely fits in that hole between our Pipestone acreage and our Paramount acreage we acquired earlier this year. We'll take the same approach. You know, in some areas, that's gonna be two zones up to three zones. You know, 10 to up to 16 wells per section. We're already well on our way at delineating the Pipestone acreage to see how much of that upside we can convert to base. We'll take the exact same approach here on the NuVista acreage.

They'd already done a pretty good job of that, but we feel like there's some room to go. So it'll just really pull right into the work we're already doing.

Operator: Your next question comes from Phillip J. Jungwirth with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Phillip J. Jungwirth: Thanks. Good morning. On the year-end '26 timeline for the Anadarko sale, is there anything you're looking to prove up ahead of the sale, such as maybe, like, three-mile laterals or just more optimized cube? Or do you think most of this work has been done? And then I just wanted to ask also if there's been any reverse inquiries received to date recognizing you're starting the process early next year.

Brendan McCracken: Yes. Thanks, Phil. Great questions. Lots of interest in the Anadarko asset, as you might imagine. You know, there's been some precedent transactions in that basin. So you know, our interpretation is there's a very strong buyer market in that basin for assets like ours, and so I think on timeline, nothing to prove up technically in the play. This is a really well-understood low decline basin with lots of certainty in it. And so I think the timeline will just be all about maximizing proceeds for our shareholders. So that's how we'll be thinking about the timeline.

Phillip J. Jungwirth: Okay, great. And then just depending on the actual proceeds received from the sale, how much below $4 billion of net debt would you view as a floor? I think in the past, you've talked about some interest in going below that. Our model would put net debt at low fives, call it, by year-end twenty-six. So it feels like you could be quite a bit below this $4 billion target. I'm just wondering how where would you view the floor as we think about go-forward capital returns?

Brendan McCracken: Yes, great question. Love the forward look there. I think the way we'll talk about that is, you know, we gotta get there and make those decisions with the facts of the moment and the macro at the time. But you know, if you took today's lens and you looked at it, that would be a tremendous opportunity for boosting those shareholder returns as we've indicated.

Operator: Your next question comes from Scott Gruber with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Scott Gruber: Yes. Good morning. Curious about Montney maintenance CapEx over the long term. You know, we can do the math on where that probably lands in twenty-six. Be curious, kind of your ability to push that down over the next two to three years after you realize the cost savings underpinning the deal and, you know, optimizing activity without a common lease line. Just some thoughts on being able to squeeze Montney maintenance CapEx down even further and where you think that could land?

Brendan McCracken: Yes. Thanks, Scott. Yeah. But while you're thinking about it, we highlighted a number of longer-term synergies. We've obviously pointed to the shorter-term capital and cash cost synergies, but there are some longer-term synergies here as well putting these two asset bases together, you know, boost our type curve, ability to drill longer laterals, things like that. But you know, Greg might have a comment on how we'll think about continuing to add efficiencies in the play.

Greg Givens: Yeah. No. Thanks for the question. You know, we'll in the very short term, we'll work on getting the cost structure on these new assets down to our cost structure, which will be around $525 a foot. But then, you know, over time in all of our plays, we usually are able to continue to see a two or 3% reduction year over year just due to efficiencies in our program. So we'll continue to drive that down just organically. And then some of the really, I think, attractive opportunities of if you look at the map, I mean, this is just right for opportunities to link the laterals across lease lines, to share infrastructure.

We've already identified some spots where it looks like some of their infrastructure will replace capital spend that we were planning on in the next year or two. So we feel like we're gonna be able to drive down our capital structure here significantly over time. If you think about, we're not ready to give guidance for next year, but, you know, we'll probably have about a third of our activity on this new acreage, a third on the acreage we acquired last year, and a third on our legacy. So we'll have opportunities to learn and get better in all three places.

So we feel like over time, we're gonna continue to just drive down our what's already an industry-leading capital efficiency up there.

Scott Gruber: I appreciate the color. And then is this Thanks, Scott. Well practiced yes, a quick follow-up on the well productivity delta. Yeah. It's a decent step above yours. We're looking for a nice 10% improvement on a blended basis. Is the delta there all rock quality? Are they undertaking, you know, different style of completion? What do you attribute that delta to? And if it is, you know, rock quality, do you think about pivoting more activity in that direction over time?

Brendan McCracken: Yeah. Scott, great question. Yeah. It's all oil mix. So this is really a fluid window piece. So where the NuVista acreage sits relative to the basket of Ovintiv Inc. acreage, it runs just a little more oily. So net-net, our oil type curve goes up on mix. So that's the driver there.

Operator: Your next question comes from Betty Jiang with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Betty Jiang: Good morning. Congrats on the acquisition. I want to ask about the processing capacity and then on the midstream front, for the Montney with expanded scale are there opportunities to optimize how you utilize the different plants, the flows, utilization of different plants, and the opportunity to potentially negotiate better contracts on the midstream front?

Brendan McCracken: Yeah. Betty, thank you for your comments and the question. Absolutely, on the midstream side, it's one of the deal synergies that's sort of baked into some of the cash cost piece, but also the capital. And then in the longer-term unquantified synergy bucket here too. So there's lots to talk about here. If we focus on the midstream side, Greg just alluded to this earlier, you know, there are several places where we can avoid some capital expenditure that we would have had for minor infrastructure projects that now could come out because these assets come with spare capacity. So that's kind of immediate. One of the big wins we've had on the Paramount integration is around runtime.

And so we expect an integrated asset here is gonna also be able to boost runtime through these midstream and processing facilities. And then the final piece is around the ability to grow into these assets over time when the macro calls for that in the future. So a lot of good wins to capture on the midstream infrastructure side here.

Betty Jiang: That's great. And then follow-up on the gas marketing side, just given the larger position, do you see adding scale enabling more opportunities to market gas? Whether on the global LNG front or other ways to mitigate your exposure to AECO?

Brendan McCracken: Yeah. Absolutely, Betty. So our strategy has been steadily chipping away at that to minimize our exposure to AECO, and we've been over the last number of years. And in particular, since we acquired the AECO exposed gas from Paramount. And we're gonna continue to do that. One of the deal features we love here is it does reduce our AECO exposure in the next several years from about 30% down to 25%. So there's a built-in step change from combining these assets together, and we will continue to look for other downstream markets to diversify our AECO away from. And I know our midstream marketing team is hard at work on that today.

Operator: Your next question comes from Lloyd Byrne with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Lloyd Byrne: Hey. You guys hear me alright?

Brendan McCracken: Yep. Go ahead, Lloyd.

Lloyd Byrne: Sorry. Congratulations on the transaction and the frankly, the entire portfolio transformation over the last couple of years. It's been really good. Can you just start with maybe the question that started off on potential growth going forward, we kinda think you can grow these assets on a liquids basis if you want. And is there any infrastructure processing constraints that you have that would block that?

Brendan McCracken: Yeah. I think thanks, Lloyd, for the comment and great question. So if you think about what this transaction does, we had already built a real growth option in the Montney oil with the addition of the Paramount acreage because that came with some spare processing and midstream capacity as well. This one boosts that up. We had previously been talking about kind of that low to mid-single-digit growth potential for oil and condensate compounded over several years. This now boosts us up to be able to do over 5% growth for up to five years.

And so if you think about what that could mean, it could take our 85,000 barrels a day in the play up, you know, well north of 100,000 barrels a day over that period if we chose to make those investments. So again, I'll caution that is not our capital allocation plan today, and this macro environment. But in the event of a stronger macro environment, both the inventory depth and the processing facilities are there to be able to facilitate that growth without major infrastructure investment. And you didn't ask it, but I'll pile on a little bit here.

Obviously, the addition of our ground game locations in the Permian also gives us a lot of confidence in that growth option as well. And that is also a place where there's ample processing capacity available should we choose to exercise that. So really, we've got that growth option unlocked across the future portfolio here.

Lloyd Byrne: That's great. Yes. Brendan, you beat me to my second question. I just wanted to ask you about the ground game in the Permian. And just, you know, what is it that allows you to keep adding those locations at an attractive price and is can you think you continue that going forward?

Brendan McCracken: Yeah. Thanks, Lloyd. Good. Yeah. Appreciate you steering me back there. You know, this is a great example of how the ingenuity and approach that our team is taking is exposing our shareholders to a unique value creation option. So really where our comparative advantage comes into play here is, you know, if you're a large mineral rights holder in the Permian, the operator of choice for you is Ovintiv Inc. You know, we're gonna get you the best royalty stream off of these assets because of our cube development approach and because of our reoccupation strategy. And, you know, how we conduct our operations in the basin.

So that's allowing us to access really high-quality resource at a very attractive entry price for our shareholders. And, you know, we look forward to seeing what that can yield in future years as well.

Operator: Your next question comes from Doug Leggate with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Doug Leggate: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. So obviously, you've set the table for the Anadarko sale. I wonder, we're coming into potentially is what some would think is a softer oil outlook. Are there any conditions where if you don't get what you hope to achieve in terms of valuation that you would hang on to that asset longer, or is it a sale regardless of the I mean, how are you thinking about framing the conditions for sale?

Brendan McCracken: Yeah. So it's the right question, Doug. I think look, the one thing I'll point out, first of all, is the Anadarko, you know, while it makes a fair amount of oil, it's about a third oil, a third NGLs, and a third gas. So it does have good commodity exposure across the three products here. So it's not exposed to one exclusively, which is helpful in really any environment. And then, you know, this is a really high-quality asset. It's gonna attract, I think, a lot of attention. And then we've given ourselves a, you know, a reasonable running time here to execute.

And so we'll be, you know, working through that time period to maximize the proceeds to our shareholders. But certainly cognizant of making sure we do that.

Doug Leggate: And then I wonder if I could be predictable and ask you about the capital return strategy. You're taking a pause on the buyback. We certainly can't understand why your free cash flow yield is as high as it is. But at the same time, we look at the capital structure and think share buybacks are glacial. They're not working in terms of forcing market recognition of value. And you've got this opportunity to pause and basically test perhaps what happens if you lower your net debt and transfer that value to equity. So I guess my question is, you seem to be messaging the $4 billion floor then under a reset potentially in the share buybacks.

Why not just take the debt down and reset your capital structure altogether?

Brendan McCracken: Yeah. I think, Doug, that's exactly what we'll be doing with the transaction. So I think we continue to be in agreement here about where we're trying to get the business to. And so we think the prudent approach we're taking here with the pause until close allows us to be leverage neutral with where we are pre-deal. And then the transaction on the Anadarko would enable us to immediately step change below that debt target. So and give us the flexibility from there. So, yeah, I think we're agreeing with you.

Operator: Your next question comes from Dreta Driftke with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Dreta Driftke: Good morning, all, and thank you for taking my questions. I was wondering if you could speak a bit on the drivers of the $100 million annual capital and cost synergies outlined with the NuVista acquisition. Are these similar changes to the changes made while incorporating the Montney acreage from the Paramount acquisition at the start of the year, or are there different opportunities you would highlight there?

Brendan McCracken: Yeah. Greg, I'll let Greg chime in on that.

Greg Givens: Yeah. Thanks for the question. First off, you know, just want to compliment NuVista. They've done a really nice job with the assets to this point, which is why we were so interested in acquiring them. But our team has developed a really well-defined and refined integration playbook that will start think of it kind of in two lenses. There's the short term, that first day up to the first, you know, six, nine months, and then longer term, how we approach things.

But, you know, just immediately after close, we'll be connecting their rigs up to our drive center, where we'll use in-house algorithms and AI to further refine our drilling efficiencies, as well as our cross-based learnings and things we've learned here in the US. You know, we think that's gonna drive, you know, several days out of drill times. On the completion side, we're gonna utilize our real-time frac optimization center, which will, you know, refine pumping schedules, shorten cycle times, or use of local sand there in the basin, which should also generate some really good cost savings shortly after close.

And then on the facility side, we see some significant opportunities to reduce the cost of both the new facilities we're gonna build but then longer term, we showed, you know, on slide 15 there, our acreage position midstream are really well aligned where they're located close to each other, so we should be able to reduce facilities cost going forward and optimize that. So on the capital side, you know, that'll make up about half of the efficiencies we're gonna see, and we think that's gonna happen pretty I mean, we're gonna measure that in months, not quarters or years. But then just importantly on the production side, you know, we're gonna reduce cost there and get more efficient.

We'll do just what we did on the last transaction. We're gonna connect the wells to our operations control center in Grand Prairie very quickly and inexpensively. And from there, we'll be able to optimize production using our in-house AI tools and algorithms to optimize production on all the wells and set points on artificial lift, those types of things. But also what we found to be very effective is the automation that we put in place. So we can not only shut in wells remotely, but also bring them back online in minutes.

And so while we've really improved the midstream reliability, and we think we'll be able to work with the new midstream providers here to help them as well. When inevitably you do have a downtime or a turnaround, we can bring our wells back online faster than anybody else in the industry up there. And what that does is just really increases our uptime. So you'll see a production benefit there as well as a cost reduction. And then when you look longer term, you know, as I spoke about earlier, we're gonna be looking to go to longer laterals. We've got some shared acreage that actually had a shared working interest between Paramount and NuVista historically.

We'll be able to make those 100% working interest wells, extend lateral links, develop that very efficiently. We'll be able to share up and optimize infrastructure spend. That'll also help base production as well as new wells. So just lots of different ways we're gonna be able to achieve this over the coming months and even longer. So I'm really excited. The team's looking forward to getting to work on optimizing this asset.

Dreta Driftke: Great. Thank you. And then just for my second question, I was wondering if you could speak a little bit about the decision to fund the acquisition through a combination of both equity and cash. Can you speak a little bit about why a 50/50 split is the optimal split in your view?

Brendan McCracken: Yeah. Thanks, Dreta. You know, I think the right place to start here is with getting the total consideration right. And so that obviously was the starting point for us. And then the next is to find the right balance on the financing mix. We were very disciplined with how much equity we used in the deal. You know, it's our view that our equity continues to be undervalued, so we wanted to be disciplined with how we use those shares. And then we also wanted to make sure we held leverage neutral like we've described at close here.

And so, really, those are kind of the governing features with how we thought about mix, and we think the outcome accretion and across-the-board uplifts for the business makes sense with that mix.

Operator: Your next question comes from Kevin McCurdy with Pickering Energy Partners. Please go ahead.

Kevin McCurdy: Hey. Good morning. I always appreciate your view on AECO and Canadian gas prices. You made the point with this transaction that it lowers your AECO exposure, and you're acquiring, you know, some really nice hedges over the next several years. I wonder if you could update us on your long-term outlook for AECO and the Canadian gas markets and maybe what key projects would make you a little bit more constructive?

Brendan McCracken: Yeah. Kevin, obviously, we've been cautious on AECO, you know, as the startup of LNG Canada is helpful and an important milestone for Western Canadian gas producers. But also, you know, recognize the basin continues to be highly productive with a lot of growth capacity. And so I would describe it as we look out into 2026, you know, a little more constructive as that LNG Canada ramps up, but still cautious because, you know, it's not the end-all and be-all.

But if you look forward to the LNG projects that are queuing up towards the end of the decade and into the early part of the 2030s, you know, we think there's a real optimism around Western Canadian pricing and what the additional egress could mean to the basin. And so built into our Montney business is a gas option, and we are long-term excited about the value embedded in that gas option.

Kevin McCurdy: Thanks for that. And just for clarification on the Permian inventory additions, was the $250 million in spending in October just from one transaction? Or was that several small deals that happened to be closing at the same time?

Brendan McCracken: Yeah. We've bucketed together several deals into that to achieve that. So, you know, true down ground game fashion there. Thanks, Kevin.

Operator: Your next question comes from David Deckelbaum with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

David Deckelbaum: Morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions today. Wanted to just follow-up on some of the allocation and some of the synergies with the NuVista transaction. You guys highlighted, obviously, the superior well productivity. And I think you talked about kind of splitting your activity evenly between Paramount, NuVista, and Ovintiv Inc. acreage up in the Montney. I guess, is there a future outlook that you would be moving more of the activity to more aggressively accelerate the development? It sounds like you're not constrained from an infrastructure side on the NuVista acreage so that it would sort of increase your free cash per share metrics?

Brendan McCracken: Yeah. You know, look, we are gonna allocate capital across the Montney to maximize free cash flow, but also bear in mind our reoccupation strategy, which is really a reservoir management strategy to come back and drill cubes beside cubes within eighteen to twenty-four months. And so those will be the two things that largely govern along with processing capacity. But those would be the things that govern our capital allocation across the assets. But like Greg said, it might shift around a little bit, but I think it's pretty stable in that one-third, one-third, one-third across the three buckets of Montney acreage.

David Deckelbaum: Appreciate that. And I know it's a bit early, but, you know, share your view on evaluation for the Anadarko Basin. Seems like it should be approximately what you pay for NuVista just on PDP alone. So I'm kinda curious just from a tax perspective, how you think about any tax slippage from transacting there or if you have some offsetting mechanisms.

Corey Code: Yeah. Good morning. So just on that front, we've got some existing basis on the asset, and then obviously, depending on how high the price is, we should be able to cover it with other tax. So we don't forecast much of any tax leakage on the sale. Thanks, David.

Operator: Your next question comes from Chris Baker with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Chris Baker: Hey, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in. Just a quick one. It sounds like this asset has been identified quite some time ago. I'm just curious in terms of the timing that we're seeing here. Was that at all influenced by the share sale? Obviously, you mentioned in the release or just anything around the timing piece given the Anadarko assets there would be helpful.

Brendan McCracken: Yeah, Chris. Look, you're quite right. So we had identified this as one of the three assets that made a lot of sense for us as we went through portfolio transition, and so pleased to be able to get to this point here today. You know, I think the way to think about it is, you know, the disclosure from NuVista highlights they began a competitive process for the asset back in August. And we, you know, acquired the shares, you know, right at the October. So that gives you some sense of the sequencing here.

Corey Code: Oh, sorry. Go ahead, Corey. I was just gonna say, just clarify, you've been one of the Northern Midland Basin, the Paramount, and then NuVista were the three. Yeah. Yep. Good point.

Chris Baker: Got it. That's great. And apologies if this was covered earlier, but any sense on what run rate EBITDA looks like for the Mid Con asset this year?

Brendan McCracken: I don't have that number to hand here, Chris. Yep. Sorry. I've got I have to I there's a lot of numbers in front of me right now, but I don't have that one. Sorry. Dean can with you.

Operator: Your next question comes from Jeff Jay with Daniel Energy Partners. Please go ahead.

Jeff Jay: Hi, guys. I just had a couple, if I could. First is the soft guide for 2026 pro forma. Is that inclusive of the Anadarko production or exclusive?

Brendan McCracken: Yeah. Hey, Jeff. Yeah. It's inclusive of the production. So we'll update that once we've got clarity on the divestiture timing.

Jeff Jay: Alright. Great. And then my second is on the then going back and, I guess, maybe beating a dead horse on slide 12, but in looking at the future synergies piece, you know, I noticed, you know, AI and production optimization are kind of in two buckets, near term and long term. And I'm wondering what the long-term, I guess, AI automation piece is and what makes it long term.

Brendan McCracken: Yeah. Well, I mean, we're just at the very front end of applying these technologies into our business and, you know, as you saw, Jeff, when you joined us in the Montney this past summer, we're active in sort of three main areas. We're active in the production operations place, so it's helping us on the uptime and on the artificial lift optimization. It's helping us on the drilling times and costs, and then it's helping us on the completions, both the cost and the productivity of the wells. So but we're really early days in trying to figure out what this technology can do for us.

And so hard to point to where it's going to go over time, but, you know, put us in the optimistic camp here of seeing the potential for this to really transform our business.

Operator: At this time, we have completed the question and answer session. And I'd like to turn the call back over to Jason Verhaest. Please go ahead.

Jason Verhaest: Thanks, Pam, and thank you everyone for joining us today. Your call is now complete.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a great day.

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