Why Moderna Might Be a One-Hit Wonder
Key Points
Moderna's decision not to diversify outside of COVID has hurt its business substantially.
The company is still generating COVID revenue, but it's insufficient to cover its operating expenses.
It's working on a personalized cancer vaccine with Merck that's showing progress.
- 10 stocks we like better than Moderna ›
Can you believe that Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) was once worth more than $195 billion in 2021? Back then, the business looked on track to be the next big healthcare company.
Then, demand for its COVID-19 vaccine started to diminish. As hospitals resumed normal operations and anti-vaccine sentiment grew, there wasn't nearly as much demand for COVID-19 shots anymore. While Moderna still generates revenue from its vaccine, it's just a fraction of what it was in 2021.
Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »
Image source: Getty Images.
The company may have made a colossal mistake
Moderna and Pfizer were the two main U.S. companies developing COVID-19 vaccines during the pandemic's height, and they generated significant revenue as a result. In the years since, their strategies diverged. Pfizer went on an acquisition spree in an effort to further diversify its business. Moderna largely remained focused on developing COVID-19 and flu combination shots and investing in research and development (R&D), all while having little else to fall back on.
In 2022, the company's sales peaked at just under $18.9 billion. In the trailing 12 months, however, Moderna's top line totaled just a fraction of that -- $3.1 billion. Its operating loss is even higher, at $3.3 billion.
The one treatment that could be a game changer for Moderna is the personalized cancer vaccine it is developing with Merck, mRNA-4157. In a phase 2 trial, mRNA-4157 combined with Merck's top cancer drug Keytruda reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% in high-risk patients with stage III/IV melanoma (after complete resection), when compared to just Keytruda by itself. But it's by no means a sure thing to obtain approval.
Is Moderna stock worth taking a chance on?
Although Moderna's valuation has come down significantly in recent years, its market cap of $10.4 billion is still high for a business with some serious question marks about its future growth. For now, there's little reason to be optimistic that things will get better anytime soon. This is why this company looks like it may be a one-hit wonder.
Should you invest $1,000 in Moderna right now?
Before you buy stock in Moderna, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Moderna wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $655,428!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,103,559!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 1,060% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 189% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of October 13, 2025
David Jagielski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Merck and Pfizer. The Motley Fool recommends Moderna. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Recommended Articles
