Is Archer Aviation Stock a Millionaire Maker?

Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR), a developer of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, probably hasn't minted any new millionaires since it went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) four years ago. The combined company's stock closed at $9.00 on the first day, went through some wild swings, but now trades at about $12.

Archer is still a divisive stock. The bulls expect its revenue to soar over the next few years as it ramps up its production of its Midnight aircraft, but the bears believe its stock is overvalued, it will struggle to narrow its losses, and it will face tougher competitors in the future. So, will Archer's stock soar higher and churn a $10,000 investment into $1 million over the next decade? Let's take a fresh look at its business model, upcoming catalysts, and valuations to decide.

Image source: Archer Aviation.

Archer's business model

Archer's Midnight aircraft can carry a single pilot and four passengers. It travels up to 100 miles on a single charge and can achieve a maximum speed of 150 miles per hour. Its drone-like design makes it easier to land in urban areas than traditional helicopters, and most of its early adopters plan to use its aircraft for short-range air taxi services.

Archer also plans to launch its own air taxi service within the next two years, and it predicts those rides will eventually cost roughly the same as Uber's (NYSE: UBER) premium UberBlack service. It has already secured a spot as the official air taxi service of the 2028 L.A. Olympics.

Archer's top customers include the U.S. Air Force (USAF), United Airlines, Future Flight Global, Ethiopian Airlines, Abu Dhabi Aviation, and Soracle -- a joint venture between Japan Airlines and Sumitomo. One of its top investors is the automaker Stellantis (NYSE: STLA), which will also become its exclusive contract manufacturer for mass producing the Midnight aircraft. It's also working with Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) to upgrade its manufacturing capabilities and aviation systems with AI.

Archer delivered its first aircraft to the USAF for test flights last year, it recently completed its first test flights in Abu Dhabi, and it expects the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to finally approve its first commercial flights in the U.S. this year. To scale up its business, it aims to ramp up its annual production to 10 aircraft in 2025, 48 aircraft in 2026, 252 aircraft in 2027, and 650 aircraft in 2028. With a backlog of roughly $6 billion, there's plenty of pent-up demand for its eVTOL aircraft -- which the bulls claim could replace traditional helicopters over the next few decades.

Archer's near-term challenges

That outlook sounds promising, but Archer hasn't generated any revenue yet. It's racking up steep losses, and it has increased its number of outstanding shares by 168% since its SPAC merger with its secondary offerings and stock-based compensation expenses.

Archer also trails behind its top eVTOL competitor, Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY), in a few key ways. Joby's S4 also carries a single pilot and four passengers, but it can achieve a higher maximum speed of 200 miles per hour with a longer range of 150 miles. The S4 uses tilt-rotor propellers for both lifting and cruising, so it can fly faster and more efficiently like a fixed-wing aircraft. The Midnight uses separate propellers for lifting and cruising, and that increased drag reduces its range and speed. Joby has also been developing a hydrogen-powered aircraft, while Archer doesn't have any hydrogen plans. That intense competition could pull away its potential customers.

But assuming Archer scales up its business, analysts expect its revenue to soar from just $1 million in 2025 to $416 million in 2027. But they also expect its net loss to widen from $658 million in 2025 to $713 million in 2027. And with a market cap of $7.7 billion, it's already richly valued at nearly 19 times its "best case scenario" sales for 2027.

Could Archer's stock be a millionaire maker?

From 2024 to 2030, Grand View Research expects the global eVTOL market to expand at a CAGR of 54.9%. If Archer matches analysts' expectations through 2027, grows its top line at a rapid CAGR of 30% over the following eight years, and trades at 20 times its forward sales by the final year, its stock could soar nearly ninefold over the next 10 years.

That would be an impressive gain, but it wouldn't churn a modest investment into over $1 million. For now, investors can nibble on Archer's stock -- but they shouldn't accumulate a bigger position unless it starts to generate more meaningful revenues.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Stellantis. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.