Tesla's base Optimus robots could cost less than $20,000, undercutting competitors by 70% if execution matches ambition.
Amazon runs 1 million robots today with proven economics -- no speculation required.
Nvidia powers every major robotics player through Isaac GR00T, capturing value without building hardware.
Wall Street keeps talking about artificial intelligence (AI)-powered chatbots. They're missing the bigger prize. The real money lies in robots that do things: picking packages, welding parts, moving inventory. Goldman Sachs just tripled its humanoid robot forecast to $38 billion by 2035, while industrial robotics could climb to a whopping $94 billion. And thanks to AI foundation models, robots are suddenly 10 times cheaper to train.
Look at Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) warehouses. More than a million robots already work alongside people to move billions of packages. That's not science fiction, it's happening today. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is scaling humanoid production from hundreds toward thousands. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) supplies the Isaac platform that powers both companies, along with nearly every other serious robotics program. Together, these three tech giants give investors distinct paths into the $130 billion robotics wave that's only just starting to break.
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Tesla claims Optimus could one day represent 80% of its future value. That sounds extreme, but CEO Elon Musk has a track record of turning audacious ideas into reality -- often years later than promised. In 2025, the company managed only a few hundred units, far short of its 5,000-robot goal, and leadership turnover has raised questions about execution.
The bet comes down to cost. Tesla is targeting $20,000 to $30,000 per humanoid, while rivals like Figure and Boston Dynamics price well above $100,000. If Tesla can hit that price point, humanoids move from rare capital expenditures to scalable operating expenses. Even its diner deployment, which looked like a publicity stunt, generated real-world data that no lab simulation can match.
Tesla's advantage is vertical integration. The same neural networks guiding cars can guide robots, its electric vehicle (EV) batteries can power humanoids, and its factories already scale in volumes that competitors can't touch. Shares are up about 5.5% this year, and at 166 times forward earnings, the stock assumes near-perfect execution. Still, if Optimus delivers even a fraction of its promise, the upside could dwarf today's core automotive business.
Amazon doesn't chase hype. It quietly runs the world's largest robotic fleet -- more than 1 million units already deployed across its fulfillment network. These aren't prototypes, but production systems that move millions of packages every day.
With the rollout of DeepFleet, Amazon says it improved travel efficiency by about 10%, a modest gain that compounds massively at a global scale. Its Hercules robots lift 1,250 pounds, while Proteus units navigate safely among human workers, blending heavy-duty capability with human-friendly design.
The advantage isn't just volume but integration. Next-generation facilities now operate an order of magnitude more robots than older sites, yet they also employ more skilled technicians in maintenance and reliability.
Amazon's model proves automation shifts work rather than erases it, while driving throughput and lowering unit costs. Competitors show off demos; Amazon embeds robotics into daily operations. That discipline creates a durable edge -- and an earnings flywheel few rivals can replicate.
Nvidia doesn't build robots -- it builds the software and chips that make them work. The tech giant's Isaac GR00T foundation model trains humanoids, Isaac Lab and Sim provide the simulation environment, and Jetson Thor brings high-end inference to the edge. This stack is quickly becoming the default toolkit for robotics teams from Boston Dynamics to Agility, even as some companies layer in their own custom systems.
The playbook mirrors Nvidia's CUDA dominance in AI training: Create indispensable software and let hardware demand follow. By selling the brains, tools, and pipelines, Nvidia captures value no matter which robot design wins. At roughly 50 times earnings, the stock already assumes excellence, but if robotics adoption scales toward the trillion-dollar forecasts, a platform-style take rate on physical AI could still leave plenty of upside.
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George Budwell has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Goldman Sachs Group, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.