Prediction: This Semiconductor Stock Could Surge 70% by 2026 (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)

Source Motley_fool

Key Points

  • Broadcom is a leader in networking and virtualization.

  • However, its biggest opportunity is in custom AI chips.

  • The company is quickly gaining new custom AI chip customers and has a huge opportunity ahead of it.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Broadcom ›

Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) has been an early winner of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout so far, but the market may still not be fully pricing in how big this opportunity could become over the next several years for this growth stock. Broadcom has positioned itself as the go-to partner for companies that want to design their own custom AI chips rather than rely entirely on graphics processing units (GPUs).

That setup gives the company a clear runway for growth that could send the stock significantly higher from here.

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What makes Broadcom special

Broadcom operates in two segments: semiconductor solutions and infrastructure software. Its semiconductor unit is divided into two main businesses.

Artist rendering of an AI chip.

Image source: Getty Images

Broadcom's primary business over the years has been networking. Its networking gear -- such as Ethernet switches and optical components -- is essential for helping move massive amounts of data quickly and efficiently in data centers. Not surprisingly, networking components have become even more important with AI, as AI workloads require high throughput and low latency. So this has been a booming business for the company.

Also within its semiconductor solutions, Broadcom has long helped customers design application-specific integrated circuits or ASICs. Unlike traditional chips that can be programmed for tasks after they are manufactured, ASICs are purpose-built for specific tasks and cannot be reprogrammed. However, this sole purpose generally makes them more powerful and efficient for the tasks for which they were built. With the rise of AI, customers have recently been turning to Broadcom to help design custom AI chips.

The company also owns a large infrastructure software business built through acquisitions like CA Technologies, Symantec, and VMware. VMware is really the crown jewel of the bunch, a market leader in virtualization, which lets multiple virtual machines run on a single server to help lower customer costs. Its VMware Cloud Foundation platform, meanwhile, is benefiting from the AI buildout, as it lets enterprise customers manage AI workloads across public clouds and their own on-premise data centers. This also keeps them from being locked into a single cloud computing provider.

While many of Broadcom's businesses benefit from AI, its biggest opportunity is in custom AI chips. The cost of Nvidia's (NASDAQ: NVDA) GPUs has soared as demand has outstripped supply, and hyperscalers (owners of large data centers) are looking for cheaper and more efficient ways to run inference at scale. Unlike training, which is a one-time event, inference runs constantly, which means the cost savings from a well-designed custom chip can compound over time.

Broadcom already proved it can deliver by working with Alphabet to create its tensor processing units (TPUs), which now help power Google Cloud. That success opened the door to new customers like Meta Platforms and ByteDance, which are developing their own chips with Broadcom's help.

The company recently surprised investors by revealing that a fourth major customer, widely believed to be OpenAI, has placed a massive order for next year. This shows how quickly Broadcom can go from design to production and highlights just how much demand there is for alternatives to general-purpose GPUs. OpenAI is also planning a massive data center buildout over the next few years with Oracle, so the upside could be huge for Broadcom. On top of that, Apple is also reportedly working on its own AI chips with Broadcom and could become another significant customer.

Where the stock could be headed in 2026

Analysts project that Broadcom will generate $63.3 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025, which ends in early November. With the company saying its first three AI chip customers are a $60 billion to $90 billion serviceable market opportunity in fiscal 2027, and OpenAI (we think) already placing a $10 billion order for fiscal 2026, the opportunity in front of it is huge. That doesn't even include the strong possibility that Apple is also a revenue-producing AI customer by fiscal 2027.

Given this momentum, it wouldn't be surprising if Broadcom could double its revenue over the next two years to around $127 billion in fiscal 2027. Custom chips can carry a higher gross margin, so let's say its adjusted gross margin moves up slightly to 80%, while adjusted operating expenses rise moderately to around $9 billion. Apply a 20% tax rate, and it would have a net income of about $74 billion, or about $14.80 per share, based on its current share count (5 billion diluted shares).

Place a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 30 to 40 on $14.80 in fiscal 2027 EPS, and the stock could be worth between $445 and $600 a share by the end of 2026. While that multiple may seem high, it takes into account the future growth Broadcom could see as custom AI chip customers continue to increase.

That's a strong potential 70% upside for the stock over the next year or so.

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Geoffrey Seiler has positions in Alphabet. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Apple, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Oracle. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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