Down 15%, Is Tesla Stock a Once-in-a-Decade Buying Opportunity Right Now?

Key Points

• Tesla's focus on a Model Y refresh instead of a lower-cost model appears to have been a mistake this year.

• Tesla's rivals are sustaining losses, which over the long term is not a sustainable scenario.

• Robotaxis are a natural evolution for the electric vehicle industry.

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares are little changed this year and are 15% lower than their all-time high. It's a disappointing performance, but is the stock's decline a buying opportunity, or is it the beginning of a downward trend? Here's a look at two significant factors to consider before answering this question.

Why is Tesla's share price declining?

The first is that the slump in Tesla's share price this year coincides with the company's electric vehicle (EV) sales falling short of expectations. However, it's not just an issue of sales; Tesla's profit margins and cash flow have also declined, which encouraged the bears to sell the stock.

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The decline in these metrics raises questions about whether its margins, cash flow, and dominant market share in EVs will allow the company to stay ahead of the competition. It suggests that Tesla may struggle to achieve the scale needed to reduce production costs, which could diminish its competitive advantage.

That said, some perspective is necessary. Despite overall sales declines, the company remains the dominant player in the U.S. EV market, with almost a 45% market share.

The reality is that the market has shifted toward the lower-cost end, and it's no coincidence that Tesla's lower-priced Model 3 is the only one in its lineup to have increased sales in the U.S. so far this year. The company has lost market share in the SUV category with its Model Y, as rivals have introduced lower-cost models, such as GM's Chevrolet Equinox and the Nissan Ariya.

Management's introduction of a higher-priced Model Y refresh, known as Juniper, has done little so far to stop the sales decline, and it has been slower than expected in producing a lower-cost Model Y, with the production ramp-up scheduled for the third quarter.

Image source: Getty Images.

Tesla remains the market leader

In many ways, Tesla's story this year is typical for a dominant market leader coming under competitive threat as other automakers effectively subsidize their way into the EV market, simply because they have to.

But Tesla still has a dominant position, and its rivals are still playing catch-up. Moreover, while the fruits of heavy investment in EVs are being reflected in the sales volumes of its rivals, they are not being reflected in their profit and loss accounts.

For example, Ford lost more than $5.1 billion in its Model e segment last year, and the company's recent announcement of a $5 billion investment in developing "affordable, high-quality electric vehicles" appears to be a necessary, all-in bet. Whether it will be successful is another question. Its investment in a business that has lost billions underscores the need for automakers to continue incurring losses on EVs to remain relevant. That's not a sustainable situation.

Tesla's robotaxi rollout

The second consideration is that, while Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk may have made a mistake by focusing on the Model Y refresh rather than accelerating the development of a lower-cost version, he's definitely not behind the curve in the natural evolution of the EV industry: namely, robotaxis.

Image source: Getty Images.

The key advantage of EVs is their lower fuel and maintenance costs, and the key disadvantage is their high up-front costs. Consequently, their best economic use is as frequently-run vehicles such as taxis.

Framed in this context, it's clear that Tesla's development of full self-driving (FSD) and robotaxis isn't a moonshot bet, or some sort of investment to offset loss of market share in EVs; it's where the EV industry is heading.

Is Tesla a must-buy stock right now?

The answer has to be a soft "no" for most investors. While sustained losses on EVs by Tesla's rivals may not be sustainable over the long term, the importance of establishing a market share in EVs for automakers can't be overstated, and they may continue to do so for some time.

Meanwhile, as exciting as robotaxis are, not least because of their potential to generate vast amounts of recurring revenue, there's no guarantee Tesla will receive regulatory approval for its version. Moreover, even if it does, it doesn't mean that publicly available unsupervised FSD will be approved.

Yet, there is a strong case for buying the stock based on the significant upside from robotaxis, and the stock has a place in the growth end of an investor's portfolio. Still, it's hard to argue that it's a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity right now, given the uncertainties discussed above.

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Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.