Dogecoin ETFs could be approved quite soon.
They could give the coin easier access to new capital inflows.
Shiba Inu doesn't have any way of getting the same exposure.
Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) and Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: SHIB) look nearly indistinguishable. They're both dog-themed meme coins, and, while one is larger than the other in terms of market cap, neither seems to have any value-generating flywheel or reason to gain in value aside from speculation.
Nonetheless, there is actually one reason to expect Dogecoin to grow faster than Shiba Inu, at least for the moment.
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An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a financial instrument that holds an asset and issues shares that trade on stock exchanges. Funds are easy for all types of investors to buy and sell, and they can plug straight into retirement accounts as easily as they can be added to a serious portfolio manager's thematic fund.
On Sept. 8, CoinDesk reported that a Dogecoin ETF could launch in the U.S. as soon as this week, offering exposure to Dogecoin through traditional brokerages. That particular ETF, which would be issued by Rex-Osprey, constructs its exposure via a combination of derivatives rather than giving investors direct exposure to the coin's spot price, which means it's following a different legal avenue for approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) than other Dogecoin ETFs.
On that note, the coin also has multiple spot ETF filings awaiting rulings from the SEC, which are scheduled to be evaluated later this year. Bitwise amended its Dogecoin registration statement on June 26, signaling active engagement with the SEC. And 21Shares submitted the forms on April 9 for a U.S. Dogecoin ETF. So there are two parallel ETF approval streams that could cause Dogecoin's price to increase if the SEC gives the green light.
In contrast to that visible pipeline of opportunity, there is no mainstream asset-manager spot ETF application for Shiba Inu.
Why would this asymmetry matter for performance? In short, look at the precedent.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $37 billion of net inflows during their first year, thereby establishing that crypto ETFs can mobilize very large pools of capital if there's interest in the underlying asset. Another useful data point to consider is that when Ethereum ETFs launched, early inflows were much more modest for the first year or so before accelerating, demonstrating that new crypto ETFs can catalyze fresh demand over time even if their immediate reception from the market is tepid.
Dogecoin ETFs will probably not one-up either Bitcoin or Ethereum's ETFs in the short or long terms. But the inflows could easily drive it to best Shiba Inu during the year or so after any approvals, if they happen.
Furthermore, U.S. exchanges and issuers are pushing for generic listing standards that could streamline the approval process for future crypto ETFs, potentially speeding up additional approvals that reinforce first movers. If Dogecoin secures the early beachhead with one or more ETFs getting approved, follow-on capital flows could follow.
In other words, pretty much any addition of new ETF plumbing tilts 2025 and 2026 in favor of Dogecoin's performance.
Let's step back and look at the bigger picture here.
Investors should separate Dogecoin's status as a likely 2025 crypto market relative winner from its lackluster merits as a long-term core holding.
Dogecoin's advantage over Shiba Inu here is a distribution advantage, not a fundamental one, and it probably will not last forever. It does not generate cash flows, and its value is highly sensitive to sentiment. Shiba Inu faces the same issues, plus, absent ETF access, it misses a channel that increasingly matters for attracting mainstream capital. It is hard to imagine how either of these assets will perform well over time.
Another important thing to remember is that scale helps ETFs, but it can cut both ways. Dogecoin's market value is materially larger than Shiba Inu's, which can make incremental inflows more digestible, but which also raises the bar for inflows to have a meaningful price impact.
Thus, if you are forced to choose between these two meme coins during the next year, Dogecoin is more likely to outperform Shiba Inu. But the wiser move for most long-term investors is to steer clear of both, or to keep any exposure very small and fully acknowledge the risk that sentiment reversals can easily overwhelm any ETF tailwind.
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Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.