Forecasting the upcoming week: US Dollar eases into weekend as markets eye central bank meetings
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is losing momentum near the 98.50 price zone and continues drifting lower from recent highs as markets unwind part of the recent US Dollar (USD) rally despite still strong United States (US) data and ongoing Middle East tensions. Profit-taking into the weekend, alongside a modest pullback in US yields, is weighing on the Greenback even as Oil prices remain elevated above $90 this week, keeping inflation concerns alive.
Investors are already positioning for next week’s key central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ), and Bank of England (BoE), all of which are widely expected to hold rates steady, shifting focus toward guidance on inflation.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.30% | -0.45% | -0.21% | -0.27% | -0.34% | -0.49% | -0.16% | |
| EUR | 0.30% | -0.16% | 0.00% | 0.02% | -0.03% | -0.18% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.45% | 0.16% | 0.00% | 0.18% | 0.13% | -0.02% | 0.29% | |
| JPY | 0.21% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.07% | -0.13% | -0.28% | 0.02% | |
| CAD | 0.27% | -0.02% | -0.18% | 0.07% | -0.07% | -0.22% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | 0.34% | 0.03% | -0.13% | 0.13% | 0.07% | -0.15% | 0.18% | |
| NZD | 0.49% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.28% | 0.22% | 0.15% | 0.32% | |
| CHF | 0.16% | -0.14% | -0.29% | -0.02% | -0.11% | -0.18% | -0.32% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD trades near the 1.1710 area, pushing slightly higher as the softer USD allows the pair to recover. However, gains remain limited as cautious sentiment and positioning ahead of the ECB meeting keep upside contained.
GBP/USD surged toward the 1.3530 region, supported by the weaker USD. The Sterling is benefiting from the shift in USD flows, although rising energy prices still pose risks to the United Kingdom (UK) inflation outlook and the BoE’s policy path.
USD/JPY pulls back from the 159.40 area amid a softer USD tone. Despite the decline, the pair remains elevated overall due to yield differentials, while intervention risks stay high as Japanese officials continue to warn against excessive Yen weakness.
AUD/USD climbs toward the 0.7150 region, gaining traction as the USD weakens and risk sentiment stabilizes.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil fell towards the $94.40 per barrel, maintaining strong weekly gains as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to drive supply concerns and volatility.
Gold (XAU/USD) advances toward the $ 4,720-per-ounce area, benefiting from a softer USD and steady geopolitical uncertainty, though upside remains somewhat capped by elevated US yields.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Monday, April 27
- Eurozone ECB’s Schnabel speech
Tuesday, April 28
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde speech
Wednesday, April 29
- New Zealand RBNZ’s Breman speech
Thursday, April 30
- United Kingdom BoE Governor Bailey speech
- Eurozone ECB Press Conference
Friday, May 1
- United Kingdom BoE’s Pill speech
Central banks' meetings and upcoming data releases to shape
Monday, April 27
- Eurozone May GfK Consumer Confidence
- Japan March Unemployment Rate
Tuesday, April 28
- Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
- Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
- Japan BoJ Outlook Report Q1
- Japan BoJ Press Conference
- Eurozone ECB Bank Lending Survey
- US ADP Employment Change (4-week average)
- US February Housing Price Index
- US April Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, April 29
- Australia March CPI (MoM, YoY)
- Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (MoM, YoY)
- Spain April HICP YoY (Preliminary)
- Switzerland April ZEW Survey Expectations
- Eurozone April Business Climate
- Eurozone April Consumer Confidence
- Eurozone April Economic Sentiment Indicator
- Germany April CPI & HICP (Preliminary)
- US Building Permits and Housing Starts
- US Durable Goods Orders
- Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
- Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report & Statement
- Canada BoC Press Conference
- US Fed Interest Rate Decision
- US Fed Monetary Policy Statement
- US FOMC Press Conference
- Japan March Retail Trade
Thursday, April 30
- China April Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI
- French Q1 GDP (Preliminary)
- Germany March Retail Sales
- French and Italian April CPI & HICP (Preliminary)
- Germany March Unemployment Rate
- United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision
- United Kingdom BoE Minutes & Monetary Policy Report
- United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Split
- Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Rate
- Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate
- Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement
- Canada February GDP
- US Core PCE and PCE Inflation
- US Q1 GDP (Preliminary)
- US Employment Cost Index
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Personal Income and Spending
- US Chicago PMI
- New Zealand ANZ Consumer Confidence
- New Zealand March Building Permits
- Japan April Tokyo CPI
Friday, May 1
- Australia Q1 Producer Price Index
- Switzerland March Retail Sales
- Canada April Manufacturing PMI
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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