$179,000 Or $79,000? Bitcoin Faces Critical Cycle Pivot, Says Analyst

A popular crypto analyst has issued a stark cyclical warning that could define Bitcoin’s trajectory for the rest of the summer. Dr. Cat, known for his integrated use of Ichimoku Cloud analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, and proprietary time-cycle forecasting, posted an intricate scenario on X suggesting Bitcoin now stands at a pivotal inflection point—one that may ultimately determine whether the next major move is to $179,000 or back down to $79,000.

Bitcoin Faces Make-or-Break Moment

“If we set a daily high between the 25th and 27th of June,” Dr. Cat began, referencing the window derived from his Time Theory model, “and it turns out to be a lower high per the Wave Theory, then a lower low should follow.” The implications, however, go far beyond near-term downside. “If a lower low comes, we invalidate the weekly cycle which implies no bottom before mid-July to mid-August.”

According to the forecast timeline, the earliest potential bottom would fall between July 14 and August 17, with a primary target range from July 28 to August 3, incorporating a ±2 week deviation. That timing model dovetails with the chart’s behavior around critical Ichimoku levels. Dr. Cat emphasized that Bitcoin is currently “making a bearish retest of the weekly Tenkan Sen,” adding that yesterday’s attempt to reclaim that level failed: “Price touched Tenkan Sen yesterday but I saw that it would open below it today.”

The Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen—two key lines in the Ichimoku system—are not just flat; they are structurally unconvincing despite a nominal 10% price advance. “This isn’t a real uptrend,” noted one user, to which Dr. Cat replied: “This is simply a neutral chart trying to flip bullish.” He elaborated that this neutrality means neither bullish nor bearish continuation is guaranteed, but warned that inaction or false optimism at this stage could expose traders to a cascading downside.

One of the most significant technical levels lies just beneath current price. “The super key support of 93.2K (weekly Kijun Sen) is relatively close—and too close to hold if the time cycles play out,” Dr. Cat stated. A failure of that level would likely trigger a deeper reversion to the 3-week Kijun Sen, which remains unvisited and is currently positioned near $75K but rising.

The entire bearish cascade remains “completely valid and with a very real chance of playing out,” unless Bitcoin manages to break above $110.6K after June 27. Such a move would invalidate both the time and wave-based lower-high structure and neutralize the scenario before it unfolds.

But until then, Dr. Cat is urging traders to look beyond surface-level price movements. “Most people look at whether price goes up or down but don’t look at how it does it,” he said. Recalling his accurate bullish stance in April and May—when others were waiting for retracement—and his caution in early June, he emphasized the importance of reading the structure, not just the candles.

“The weekly chart was one candle away from a bullish TK cross, which would’ve implied big bullish continuation. But I waited. Then the market dumped,” he reminded followers. “Now it is relatively similar… dramatic reversals happen as close to invalidation as possible so everyone is tested and trapped to the limit.”

In summary, Dr. Cat’s outlook remains balanced—but volatile. “I’m not telling you I can read the future,” he said. “I’m telling you that you need to distinguish neutral from bullish charts, which many people can’t—and suffer the consequences.”

With time cycles converging and Ichimoku structures flashing indecision, Bitcoin now stands at a binary junction. The next high or low could lock in a multi-week trend, with targets as distant as $179K—or as painful as $79K—hanging in the balance.

“This is simply a neutral chart trying to flip bullish. Which can certainly flip bullish pretty soon but until that happens I discuss whether first comes 179K or 79K with pretty much equal probability and I’m warning about an absolutely valid scenario which is on the table unless the chart flips bullish,” Dr. Cat concludes.

At press time, BTC traded at $107,356.