Jamie Dimon warns of U.S. recession despite the recent pullback in tariffs

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said a recession was still possible in the country. The CEO cautioned of a recession a week after the U.S. inked a trade agreement with China in Geneva, Switzerland. Dimon said the recent rollback of tariffs between the U.S. and China was the right thing to do. 

During an interview with Bloomberg Television on Thursday, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, said there was still a possibility for a recession in the U.S. The CEO noted that if there was a recession, he didn’t know how big it would be. Dimon added that he could not tell how long the recession would last. The CEO stated that he was hopeful the country would avoid the recession. Dimon explained that the recession was due to continued uncertainties mounting pressure on markets and the economy. He cited issues like America’s increasing debt load, geopolitical conflicts, tariffs, and rising interest rates.

JPMorgan CEO warns of a recession

JPM drops US recession risk back under 50% raising 2025 GDP estimate to +0.6% from +0.2% Chief Economist Feroli also pushes back first #FOMC rate cut to Dec (from Sept).

“The administration’s recent dialing down of some of the more draconian tariffs placed on China should… pic.twitter.com/q8TVYHg4Ma

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) May 13, 2025

Dimon noted that he would defer to economists at his bank who gave the recession a 50 percent chance of happening. JPMorgan’s Chief Economist, Michael Feroli, said on Tuesday that the outlook for a recession was still elevated. The economist added that the outlook was below 50 percent. 

According to Dimon, even with the pauses in tariffs, the taxes on imported goods were still higher than they were a year ago. The higher taxes on goods imported from China to the United States could lead to economic damage. The CEO revealed that many people were still holding back on potential investments in the U.S. He clarified that the investors hesitated to invest so they could think through what they wanted to do.

Dimon noted that there would be little investment in the U.S. because the country irritated a lot of people. He noted that the impact of the reduced investments would not be widely felt. The CEO stated that America was not a bad destination for investments. He joked that if anyone wanted to invest all their money, they would put it in the country.

Jamie Dimon says the rollback of tariffs is good for the economy

Trump announced tariffs in April on dozens of nations. Days later, the president declared a 90-day pause on the tariffs to seek trade agreements. Dimon has repeatedly advocated for the U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to lead the discussions. The CEO also recently sought a quick resolution to the uncertainties through his annual shareholder letter. 

The CEO said there was still uncertainty on the issue of tariffs. He added that the pauses in the tariffs between the two economies were great for both the economy and the market. Dimon stated that the right thing to do was to back off some of the tariffs and then engage in serious talks.

Earlier this week, China and the U.S. agreed to temporarily pause tariffs on their products while they work on a long-term agreement. The U.S. lowered tariffs imposed on Chinese goods from 145 percent to 30 percent. China agreed to reduce tariffs imposed on U.S. goods from 125 percent to 10 percent. 

The CEO revealed that he was inspired by the prospect of talks between the UK and the EU. He noted that they had the opportunity to create a great relationship. Dimon added that the new agreement between the EU and the UK would make up for the disaster of Brexit. 

Dimon revealed that volatility had continued recently. He stated that his bank’s trading volume had remained elevated due to continued volatility. The CEO said there have been examples of good and bad volatility and noted that the recent one happened to be good volatility. He cautioned that the next wave of volatility may not be good.

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