How Trump Tariffs Are Changing Bitcoin | US Morning Briefing

Welcome to the US Morning Crypto Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee to see how Bitcoin is holding its ground while Wall Street stumbles, why Trump’s tariffs may push the Fed into money-printing mode, and what that could mean for crypto’s next chapter. From Ethereum’s test of resilience to rising odds of a US recession, here’s everything you need to know to stay ahead.

Bitcoin Enters Its Risk-Dynamic Era Amid Tariffs and Turmoil

Bitcoin’s reaction to recent macro shocks—particularly Trump’s sweeping tariffs—has been noticeably calm compared to traditional markets, and that’s turning heads. While Wall Street stumbles harder than expected, crypto has held relatively steady.

Nexo Dispatch Editor Stella Zlatarev told BeInCrypto that this isn’t just resilience—it’s evidence that Bitcoin may be entering a new phase of market maturity.

“A 2–3% drop in crypto is a rounding error compared to past cycles,” she said, emphasizing that this stability amid chaos suggests Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative punt. “Bitcoin’s ability to weather macro turbulence without the wild swings of previous years suggests institutional investors are treating it less as a speculative punt and more as a strategic asset,” Zlatarev said.

Analysts also stressed that Bitcoin’s behavior doesn’t align with traditional asset categories.

“It’s not gold, and it’s not the yen. Instead, Bitcoin is emerging as a risk-dynamic asset – one that doesn’t crumble like high-growth stocks but also doesn’t attract the same flight-to-safety flows as traditional safe havens,” Zlatarev told BeInCrypto.

This concept of a “risk-dynamic” asset positions Bitcoin in a unique role: something that thrives in uncertainty but doesn’t collapse when the market turns.

Zlatarev from Nexo also noted that how Ethereum and other blue-chip altcoins respond next will be key.

“If ETH mirrors BTC’s performance, it strengthens the case that top-tier crypto assets are evolving into a more predictable asset class. If ETH wobbles, it reinforces that, for now, Bitcoin is in a league of its own.”

Meanwhile, the macro backdrop is shifting fast. Trump’s new “Liberation Day” tariffs have spooked global trade partners and have also sent ripple effects through prediction markets. Polymarket now gives almost 50% odds of a US recession this year—a major shift following the announcement.

Also, CME FedWatch tool shows interest rate traders have boosted the probability the US Federal Reserve will make four rate cuts this year. Eventually, this could relief the current macroeconomic pressure on Bitcoin.

Former BitMex CEO Arthur Hayes mentioned that Trump’s current tariff strategy could complicate the US bond market. In other words, pressure is building for the Fed to intervene—possibly by turning on the liquidity spigot once again.

All of this puts Bitcoin in a new spotlight. Its steadiness is no longer being dismissed as a coincidence. It may be the first sign that crypto, or at least its most mature players, is stepping out of the shadows of speculation and into the spotlight of strategic finance.

Chart of the Day

By reducing foreign demand for US Treasuries, Trump’s tariffs may force the Fed to inject more liquidity—potentially weakening the dollar and boosting Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.

Byte-Sized Alpha

– Trump’s “Liberation Day” enforces 10%+ tariffs on all imports, hitting China, the EU, and Israel, triggering market drops and recession fears.

– According to Standard Chartered, Bitcoin may hit $500,000 by Trump’s term end, AVAX could 10x by 2029, and Ethereum’s 2025 target drops to $4,000.

– The STABLE Act of 2025 advances with bipartisan support, aiming to tighten stablecoin rules as competition and regulatory pressure intensify.

– Bitcoin ETFs see $221 million in April inflows led by ARKB, but BTC derivatives cool with falling futures interest and bearish options sentiment.

– DXY hits a 2024 low after “Liberation Day” tariffs, fueling short-term Bitcoin surge hopes amid global tensions and policy uncertainty.

– Bitcoin struggles below $85,000 amid weak sentiment, but long-term holders stay firm, keeping capitulation fears at bay.

– Polymarket sees almost 50% chance of US recession as Trump’s tariffs spark market fears and trade tensions.