Ripple Price Forecast: XRP holds support as key on-chain indicator signals potential bullish turnaround

• XRP stabilizes above $1.90 short-term support, but remains below the 50-day EMA resistance.
• XRP Long-Term Holder NUPL on-chain indicator resets, signaling a potential floor price and bullish shift.
• XRP ETFs' inflows resume despite broader market volatility and low retail interest.

Ripple (XRP) is consolidating above $1.90, a short-term support level, at the time of writing on Thursday. This mild uptick marks two consecutive days of a strengthening technical outlook, following recent market-wide volatility.

XRP Long-Term Holder signals fresh accumulation

The XRP Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH-NUPL) indicator has reset to levels historically associated with accumulation phases and local price floors. Glassnode’s data shows that the LTH-NUPL ratio indicates a transition to optimism at 0.39.

A continued recovery in this metric would keep investors interested in XRP as accumulation drives prices higher. The LTH-NUPL considers transactions with a lifespan of at least 155 days and serves as an indicator of long-term investor behaviour.

Meanwhile, institutional investors are leaning back into risk, as evidenced by inflows into Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). SoSoValue data shows approximately $7 million in inflows on Wednesday, led by Bitwise’s XRP ETF with over $5 million and Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ with $1 million. The cumulative total inflow currently stands at $1.23 billion, and the net assets at $1.39 billion.

Retail interest in XRP remains largely subdued despite institutional investors leaning back into risk. CoinGlass shows futures Open Interest (OI) averaging $3.38 billion on Thursday, up slightly from $3.35 the previous day. The OI has declined from $4.55 billion recorded on January 6, underlining the prevailing risk-off sentiment. Low retail interest may constrain XRP’s upside.

Technical outlook: XRP defends support amid mixed signals

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below the signal line on the daily chart, confirming XRP’s short-term bearish momentum. The histogram bars, which are expanding below the zero line, may prompt investors to reduce exposure, adding to the selling pressure.

Meanwhile, the $1.90 support level remains critical for XRP to sustain bullish momentum and reclaim the $2.00 psychological threshold. Beyond this range, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) caps the upside at $2.05, the 100-day EMA at $2.18 and the 200-day EMA at $2.30.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 44 on the daily chart, indicating that bearish momentum is fading. A sustained move above the 50 midline would signal a shift from bearish to bullish momentum. Conversely, a daily close below the $1.90 support could accelerate downside pressure toward Monday’s low of $1.85.