The Bitcoin Whale Comeback Story May Be Overblown, Onchain Data Shows

According to onchain data from CryptoQuant, claims that big holders are massively reaccumulating Bitcoin are exaggerated. The numbers that many share on social media can be distorted by exchange moves, not fresh buying. That distortion matters because large transfers tied to exchanges can look like one entity is piling in, when the action is often internal bookkeeping.

Whale Wallet Totals Can Be Misleading

Exchange firms often merge funds from many small accounts into fewer large wallets for operational or compliance reasons. When that happens, onchain trackers may count those consolidated addresses as “whales,” inflating the apparent number of very large holders.

According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, once those exchange-related shifts are removed from the data, the balance held by true large holders is still falling. Balances in addresses holding between 100 to 1,000 BTC have dropped, a trend that lines up with outflows from spot ETFs.

No, whales are not buying enormous amount of Bitcoin.

Most Bitcoin whale data out there has been “affected” by exchanges consolidating a lot of their holdings into fewer addresses with larger balances, this is why whales seem to have accumulated a lot of coins recently.

We… pic.twitter.com/dk9XqqckIX

— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) January 2, 2026

Long-Term Holders Turning Buyer

Reports have disclosed that another group has shifted its behavior. Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, says long-term holders have been net accumulators over the past 30 days after what was their biggest selling spree since 2019.

That change could reduce one major source of selling pressure. It does not guarantee a rally, but it does mean at least one key cohort stopped adding to the sell side. Markets react to who is buying and who is selling, and this move by long-term holders softens the case that a single group is driving prices lower.

Bitcoin has been hovering around the $90,000 area during thin holiday trading. At the time of reporting, the price was about $89,750 Saturday, with 24-hour volume near $52 billion.

The token sits roughly 2.8% below a recent day high of $90,250 and carries a market capitalization of about $1.75 trillion based on a circulating supply close to 20 million BTC. Trading has seen sharp moves up and down, but volume has been weak, which means moves lack the support needed for a clear breakout or breakdown.

Since US spot Bitcoin ETFs became active in early 2024, the ownership picture has changed. ETFs now hold a large share of on- and off-chain demand, which can shift where Bitcoin is stored and how flows appear on onchain charts. Reports suggest that ETF outflows have helped drive lower balances in the 100–1,000 BTC band, while at the same time some long-term holders are quietly buying.

Taken together, the evidence points to consolidation more than a new bull run or a major crash. Claims of a massive whale reaccumulation wave were overblown because they did not account for exchange consolidation.

Yet the story is not one-sided. Long-term holders have shown buying interest, even as large non-exchange addresses continue to shed some holdings. Future price direction will likely depend on whether ETF flows return in size and whether trading volume picks up enough to confirm any move.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView