Bitcoin Bears Shaken—Analyst Says Local Bottom 90% Likely Set

Source Newsbtc

Bitcoin’s current rebound off the $107,200 low has sparked renewed debate over whether the market has already set its local bottom and is positioned to rally higher.. Independent analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) argues that the probability is “90%+” that the low has been planted, citing both price structure and his recurring “FOMC reversal confluence” framework as confirmation.

Analyst Claims 90% Chance The Bitcoin Bottom Is In

Astronomer, who publicly documented his short-term bearish call from $123,000 down to the $110,000–$111,000 zone, revealed that he flipped long as the target was reached in late August. “Alright, as if the confluences of my confidence in the bottom being in the $110k area at the end of August weren’t strong enough … there now is another confluence lining up,” he wrote. According to him, the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting cycle has historically functioned as a turning point for Bitcoin trends.

He explained: “The FOMC meeting data reverses the ongoing trend at minimum 0 bars (on the date), or 6 bars at most before the date, and it has done that correctly 90%+ of the times. The few times it hasn’t, was because our quarterly long took over (which has more power).” In practice, Astronomer argues, markets front-run the event, as insiders and well-capitalized players set the post-FOMC direction before retail sentiment digests the outcome.

With the next FOMC scheduled for September 18, he contends the downtrend from $123,000 to $110,000 already exhausted itself ahead of schedule. “Now with FOMC coming up … the low is likely already planted, and the trend reversed to up again,” he said.

Bitcoin price analysis

The analyst contrasted his methodology with the broader crypto commentary ecosystem, where many influencers continue to forecast further downside and a “red September.” He called such views “utter nonsense” rooted in surface-level seasonality. “Every time it does work, it plants its bottom before the actual meeting to front run the anticipation … insiders already have set the post FOMC price direction, regardless of the outcome,” he wrote, stressing that relying on generic “be careful” warnings ahead of central bank events misses the structural shift.

After his long entry at $110,000, Bitcoin has since climbed above $115,000, prompting Astronomer to declare September’s bearish thesis already invalid. “ September will close green. Yup, Septembears officially 6% in the wrong now. As September opened at 108,299, and price is now at 115,000. That puts September in the upper historical quartile of how green it is at the moment,” he noted.

He further pointed to the last two years as evidence that September’s reputation as a seasonally weak month for Bitcoin has lost statistical edge. “A certain month indeed doesn’t have to be green. ‘Seasonality’ is just a cookie cutter version of properly using cycles. Look at last two years, September has also been green and mean to the bears,” he wrote.

For Astronomer, the conclusion is clear: “When many confluences point in the same direction, it usually means you have solved the rubik’s cube correctly and so can confidently believe.” Still, he tempered the conviction with risk management discipline, stating: “Of course, I could always be wrong, although it has been a long time we lost a trade, never go all in. Take a decent size risk and sleep sound.”

With Bitcoin holding above $115,000 and the FOMC meeting days away, the market’s near-term verdict on whether a sustainable bottom has formed may arrive sooner rather than later.

Bitcoin price
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Bitcoin drops below $110K ahead of $22B options expiry; altcoins tumbleBitcoin fell below the $110,000 mark on Friday, heading for a steep weekly loss as nearly $22 billion in cryptocurrency options were set to expire. The drop also comes as traders await key U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Author  Mitrade
Sept 26, Fri
Bitcoin fell below the $110,000 mark on Friday, heading for a steep weekly loss as nearly $22 billion in cryptocurrency options were set to expire. The drop also comes as traders await key U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
placeholder
Tesla set to beat Q3 delivery estimates on robust U.S. and China demand, says RBCTesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is on track to exceed market expectations for third-quarter deliveries, driven by stronger sales momentum in both the United States and China, according to RBC Capital Markets. The firm projects 456,000 vehicle deliveries for Q3, compared with consensus forecasts of 440,000 (Visible Alpha) and 448,000 (FactSet).
Author  Mitrade
Sept 26, Fri
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is on track to exceed market expectations for third-quarter deliveries, driven by stronger sales momentum in both the United States and China, according to RBC Capital Markets. The firm projects 456,000 vehicle deliveries for Q3, compared with consensus forecasts of 440,000 (Visible Alpha) and 448,000 (FactSet).
placeholder
Dollar Weakens and Stocks Stall as Gold Rises Ahead of Fed DecisionOn Wednesday, global markets saw the dollar weaken, shares dip slightly, and gold rise to new highs as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate cut later in the day.
Author  Mitrade
Sept 17, Wed
On Wednesday, global markets saw the dollar weaken, shares dip slightly, and gold rise to new highs as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate cut later in the day.
placeholder
Key Challenges Ahead for US-China TikTok Ownership DealA newly announced framework agreement between the United States and China aims to shift TikTok’s ownership to U.S. control, raising numerous questions and challenges.
Author  Mitrade
Sept 17, Wed
A newly announced framework agreement between the United States and China aims to shift TikTok’s ownership to U.S. control, raising numerous questions and challenges.
placeholder
Oil Prices Rise Following Attacks on Russian Energy Infrastructure Oil prices climbed further on Monday as markets reacted to Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian refinery infrastructure, raising concerns over potential disruptions to Russia’s crude and fuel exports.
Author  Mitrade
Sept 15, Mon
Oil prices climbed further on Monday as markets reacted to Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian refinery infrastructure, raising concerns over potential disruptions to Russia’s crude and fuel exports.
goTop
quote