EUR/USD extends gains as DXY slides to near three-year low, Empire State Index slumps

• The EUR/USD holds firm above 1.1600 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) slips back below 98.00.
• Weak Empire State Manufacturing Index deepens Dollar pressure; Eurozone wage growth slows, giving the ECB room to stay cautious.
• Markets will eye US retail sales and the Fed's policy decision on Wednesday; fresh Eurozone HICP data and ECB speakers will also be in focus midweek.

The Euro (EUR) is climbing against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week, rebounding from Friday’s risk-off dip triggered by hostilities between Israel and Iran. With markets less jittery and the appetite for the US Dollar fading, the EUR/USD pair gains traction as the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats, with traders trimming risk-off bets and reacting to surprisingly weak factory data from New York.

The EUR/USD is hovering below 1.1600 at the time of writing, reversing from a high of 1.1616 with a daily gain of roughly 0.70% to trade near 1.1594. The pair remains slightly under last week’s peak at 1.1631, its highest level since October 2021. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, continues to drift lower, slipping back below the 98.00 mark to trade around 97.75, near its lowest level in three years.

Fresh data from the New York Federal Reserve added to the Dollar’s woes after the Empire State Manufacturing Index tumbled to -16.0 in June from -9.2 in May, missing market forecasts of -5.5. This marked the weakest reading since March’s two-year low of -20.0, signaling a deeper contraction in factory activity and fueling concerns over a slowdown in regional economic momentum.

Adding to the Euro’s backdrop, fresh Eurostat figures showed wages across the Eurozone rose by 3.4% YoY in the first quarter of 2025, slowing from a 4.1% increase in the previous quarter. This marks the weakest pace of wage growth since the third quarter of 2022, offering some relief to the European Central Bank (ECB) as it maintains a cautious, wait-and-see approach amid cooling inflation and lackluster growth momentum.

Echoing this cautious tone, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel urged caution in Monday’s address at the Frankfurt summit, saying the bank should neither rule out further easing nor commit to a pause in rate cuts, given persistent uncertainties. Despite inflation hovering around target, he emphasised a meeting-by-meeting approach—especially in light of geopolitical risks tied to the Middle East—and warned that committing to a path now could backfire.

Looking ahead, markets will focus on Tuesday’s US retail sales data and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision on Wednesday, with no rate change expected but guidance closely watched. On the Euro side, fresh Eurozone inflation figures (HICP) are due the same day, alongside remarks from ECB officials such as Knot, Nagel, and Villeroy, which could offer more clues on the path for rates.