GBP/USD trades flat above 1.3450 amid thin trading volume
- GBP/USD flat lines near 1.3465 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- BoE’s rates are expected to continue on a gradual downward path.
- Most Fed officials said that further rate cuts would likely be appropriate if inflation declines over time.
The GBP/USD pair holds steady around 1.3465 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. However, the Bank of England (BoE) guided that monetary policy will remain on a gradual downward path, which might underpin the Cable against the US Dollar (USD). Financial markets are expected to trade on thin volumes as traders prepare for the New Year holiday.
The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates from 4.0% to 3.75% at its December policy meeting, the lowest level in nearly three years. Governor Andrew Bailey said during the press conference that rates are likely to continue on a gradual downward path, but "how much further we go becomes a closer call" with each cut. Money markets believe the UK central bank will deliver at least one rate reduction in the first half of the year and are pricing in nearly a 50% chance of a second before the year-end, according to Reuters.
On the USD’s front, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%. FOMC Minutes released on Tuesday revealed that most participants judged that it would likely be appropriate to stand on further rate cuts if inflation declined over time.
Meanwhile, some Fed officials said it might be best to leave rates unchanged for a while after the committee made three rate reductions this year to support the weakening labor market. Following the FOMC minutes’ release, markets are now pricing in nearly an 85% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in January, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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