USD/CAD holds near 1.3800 amid market caution ahead of US CPI data
- USD/CAD maintains its position as traders adopt caution ahead of the delayed US Consumer Price Index report.
- Fed’s Waller said that with inflation still elevated, policymakers can afford to be patient and delay policy easing.
- The commodity-linked CAD faces headwinds as Oil prices decline, despite escalating geopolitical tensions.
USD/CAD holds position after registering modest gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3790 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) holds ground from market caution ahead of the release of the delayed US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due later in the day, which is expected to provide further insight into how price pressures are evolving.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, who is under consideration to become chair of the central bank, reiterated his dovish stance on interest rates during a CNBC forum. “Because inflation is still elevated, we can take our time - there’s no rush to get down. We can steadily bring the policy rate down toward neutral,” Waller said.
The CME FedWatch tool suggests that Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 75.6% chance of a hold in rates at the US central bank's next meeting in January, up from nearly 74% a week ago.
The USD/CAD pair may gain ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces challenges amid declining Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades lower near $56.00 per barrel at the time of writing. However, the downside of the Oil prices could be restrained amid rising geopolitical tensions.
The United States (US) has ordered a complete halt to maritime traffic involving sanctioned Oil tankers traveling to and from Venezuela. At the same time, Washington is pushing for stricter sanctions on Russia’s energy sector to support peace negotiations over Ukraine, fueling worries about possible disruptions to global supply.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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