EUR/USD rises to fresh two-week highs ahead of Eurozone industrial data

• The Euro extends gains for the seventh consecutive day to hit fresh highs above 1.1630.
• The end of the US government shutdown has triggered a moderate appetite for risk.
• Eurozone Industrial Production is expected to have bounced up in September.

, The pair maintains a mild positive tone as investors celebrate the reopening of the US federal government, with all eyes on the Eurozone's Industrial Production figures, due later in the day.

US President Donald Trump signed the bill that ended a 43-day-long US government shutdown late on Wednesday, allowing for the release of a backlog of US macroeconomic figures. The White House, however, warned that October's employment and inflation figures might not be published.

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continued to show their divergences, with Governor Stephen Miran reiterating the need for further interest rate cuts, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic showed a more cautious view, playing down the labour market's weakness and highlighting the upside risks to inflation.

In the Eurozone calendar, the focus on Thursday is on September's Industrial Production figures, ahead of a speech from European Central Bank (ECB) Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board, Frank Elderson. In the US, October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled on Thursday, won't be released, but some Fed speakers and the Monthly Budget Statement may provide some guidance for US Dollar (USD) crosses.

Daily digest market movers: The US Dollar dips as the US shutdown ends

• The US Dollar is trading lower across the board with investors celebrating the end of the longest US government shutdown in history.
• Private data released recently revealed a stalled labor market, but the odds for further Fed monetary easing this year remain evenly split. The CME Group's Fed Watch tool shows that bets for a quarter-point rate cut in December have eased to 54%, from 67% last week and about 95% one month ago.
• On Wednesday, Fed Governor Stephen Miran reiterated that the current monetary policy is too restrictive and that is partly responsible for the labour market weakness that the central bank is tasked with avoiding.
• On the other side of the spectrum, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic assessed that the labor market is in a "curious state of balance," while, according to his view, lowering interest rates further might feed the inflation beast, leading to serious trouble.
• Bostic also announced that he will retire at the end of his term in February 2026, which is likely to give US President Trump the chance to replace him with another partisan dove to push for a more accommodative monetary policy.
• In Europe, Industrial Production is expected to show a rebound to a 0.7% growth in September, to partially retrace the 1.2% decline seen in August. Year-on-year, factory activity is expected to accelerate by 2.1% from the 1.1% seen last month.
• On Wednesday, German inflation data confirmed that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) grew at a 0.3% pace in October and at 2.3% in the last 12 months, slightly below the 2.4% yearly inflation seen in September. Likewise, the German CPI accelerated to 0.3% in October from 0.2% in September, although the yearly rate eased to 2.3% from the previous month's 2.4% reading.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD breaks the top of the bearish channel

EUR/USD remains bid and breaks above the top of a descending channel from early October highs. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) consolidates within bullish territory nearing overbought conditions after a seven-day rally, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is about to cross below the signal line, which suggests that upside momentum might be fading.

Bulls should remain above a previous support in the area of 1.1620-1.1625 (October 28 low), and the channel top, currently around 1.1615, to confirm a trend shift, aiming for the October 28 and 29 highs near 1.1670, and the October 17 high, near 1.1730.

On the other side, downside attempts are being contained above Wednesday's lows of 1.1565 for now. Below, the pair might find support at the 1.1530-1.1540 area (near November 7 and 10 lows) ahead of the 1.1500 psychological level and the key support at the November 5 low around 1.1470.