The Battle for the Next Fed Chair: Waller Favored by Economists, Trump May Prefer Hassett

TradingKey - After the Federal Reserve restarted its easing cycle in September, market speculation around the next Fed chair — who will succeed Jerome Powell — has shifted subtly. The odds for top candidates have narrowed since early month. According to a new Financial Times survey, most economists favor Christopher Waller, while Kevin Hassett appears more likely to be President Trump’s pick due to his strong alignment with “MAGA” economic policies.

Economists Back Waller — But Doubt He’ll Win

A University of Chicago survey conducted for the Financial Times found that 82% of economist respondents view current Fed Governor Christopher Waller as the best candidate to lead the world’s most influential central bank. Yet curiously, only one in five believe he will actually be appointed to the role next year.

In contrast, 39% of respondents expect Kevin Hassett, currently Director of the White House National Economic Council, to become the next Fed chair — the highest share among all major contenders.

President Trump is reportedly considering up to 11 names, but has narrowed the list to a so-called “triple shortlist” of:

• Kevin Warsh (former Fed governor)
• Kevin Hassett
• Christopher Waller

Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have both stated they want a Fed chair who is more open to rate cuts — signaling a preference for a dovish successor.

Among the five most discussed candidates — including Bessent and newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miran — when asked “who is your preferred choice?”, economists overwhelmingly backed Waller, followed distantly by Warsh and Bessent. Hassett and Miran received zero votes.

However, when asked “who is most likely to be Fed Chair?”, Hassett led with nearly double the support of Miran and Waller, while Warsh and Bessent trailed at the bottom.

Economist Views on Next Fed Chair by FT Survey, Source: Financial Times

This divergence between professional preference and perceived likelihood reflects a growing tension between technical expertise and political loyalty — a direct challenge to the Federal Reserve’s independence.

Waller: Respected but Not Trusted by Trump?

Despite casting one of two dissenting votes at the July FOMC meeting, Waller supported the consensus decision to cut rates by 25 basis points in September — balancing principle with pragmatism.

Robert Barbera of Johns Hopkins University said:

“Waller looks like a central banker, rather than someone who is prostrating himself for the job of Fed chair. And that’s precisely why he won’t get it.”

While no economist supports Stephen Miran as their ideal choice, he still has about a 20% chance of being selected, according to the FT poll. Miran is widely seen as Trump’s man at the Fed, having voted to cut rates by 50 bps in September and publicly advocating for 125 bps of additional cuts this year.

Market Betting Aligns with Expert Predictions

Investor sentiment on prediction markets mirrors academic views. As of September 29, on Polymarket — the largest online betting platform — the implied probabilities for Trump appointing each candidate are:

• Christopher Waller: 26%
• Kevin Hassett: 23%
• Kevin Warsh: 20%
• Stephen Miran: 14.9%

Likelihood of Next Fed Chair Appointment, Source: Polymarket

Notably, although Waller remains the favorite, the gap between the top four candidates is narrowing — reflecting mounting political pressure on the Fed under Trump’s second administration.