Why Bitcoin’s Calm Rally Could Be a Setup for a Massive Breakout, Analyst Reveals

Bitcoin has returned to an upward trajectory, with the asset posting a 1.7% gain in the last 24 hours to reach $109,505. This marks a 4% increase in the past week, placing the cryptocurrency less than 2% below its all-time high of $111,000 set last month.

The move follows a period of subdued market activity, with recent gains occurring in a relatively quiet trading environment. Analysts have looked into on-chain indicators for signals of whether the current price action is sustainable or approaching overheated levels.

Particularly, unlike previous rallies driven by sharp price spikes and speculative retail demand, the latest growth appears more measured. This has prompted the assessment of metrics such as Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), MVRV ratio, and exchange premium indexes to gauge underlying investor behavior and sentiment.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders and US Demand Drive Quiet Accumulation

According to an analysis published on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform by contributor Avocado Onchain, Bitcoin’s current rally is taking shape under relatively stable conditions.

The analyst points to a declining 30-day moving average of Binary CDD, a metric that tracks the spending behavior of long-term holders. The decrease suggests that these holders are not yet exiting the market, indicating a continued confidence in the asset’s potential for further gains.

Another notable indicator cited in the analysis is the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the difference between Bitcoin prices on US-based Coinbase and other global exchanges. This premium is increasing and nearing levels observed during Bitcoin’s prior peaks in March and December 2024.

While elevated premiums can be a warning sign of overheating, Avocado notes that the Korea Premium Index remains low, suggesting muted activity from retail traders in Asia. This balance implies that institutional buying pressure, particularly from US-based investors, could be driving the recent momentum.

In addition, the MVRV ratio, a comparison of Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, has been rising gradually without any sharp jumps. This suggests that the market has not entered an extreme greed phase, further reinforcing the idea that the current uptrend may have more room to run.  Avocado wrote:

In summary, rather than anticipating a correction, the current indicators suggest that Bitcoin may have further room to grow, and this could be a time to carefully monitor the potential for continued upside.

Whale Activity and Institutional Inflows Signal Market Confidence

In a separate post, another CryptoQuant contributor known as Crypto Dan highlighted consistent buying activity from larger market players. His report notes that the Coinbase Premium has been climbing steadily since April 21, indicating increased demand from US investors.

This trend, combined with observations of whale accumulation, points to a strengthening market foundation despite the absence of exuberant price behavior.

The analyst further noted that such patterns are characteristic of post-correction recovery phases in Bitcoin’s historical price cycles. So far, the combination of long-term holder conviction, institutional demand, and subdued retail activity suggests the rally may be advancing on more stable footing than prior surges.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView