AUD/USD Price Forecast: Sets for volatility expansion
- AUD/USD surges to near 0.6460 as antipodeans outperform across the board.
- US President Trump’s tax bill is expected to increase the national debt by $3.8 trillion.
- RBA’s Hauser is hopeful of strong demand from China.
The AUD/USD pair is up 0.8% around 0.6460 during European trading hours on Friday. The Aussie pair strengthens as antipodeans perform strongly, and escalating concerns over the United States (US) fiscal health continue to batter the US Dollar (USD).
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, revisits the two-week low around 99.30.
Investors continue to dump the US Dollar as they are worried that the imposition of the new tax bill by US President Donald Trump will accelerate concerns over fiscal imbalances and boost inflationary pressures. The new bill is expected to increase the national debt by $3.8 trillion, a scenario that will increase interest obligations for the administration. Trump’s bill has been passed by the House of Representatives and is advanced to the Senate for further approval.
Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) trades firmly as Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has expressed confidence in a sharp increase in Australian exports to China. “Australian exporters are upbeat about the resilience of China demand,” Hauser said on Thursday.
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.58% | -0.55% | -0.44% | -0.35% | -0.78% | -0.97% | -0.33% | |
| EUR | 0.58% | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.23% | -0.20% | -0.38% | 0.27% | |
| GBP | 0.55% | -0.03% | 0.12% | 0.20% | -0.20% | -0.41% | 0.24% | |
| JPY | 0.44% | -0.15% | -0.12% | 0.10% | -0.34% | -0.52% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.35% | -0.23% | -0.20% | -0.10% | -0.45% | -0.61% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | 0.78% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.34% | 0.45% | -0.17% | 0.47% | |
| NZD | 0.97% | 0.38% | 0.41% | 0.52% | 0.61% | 0.17% | 0.65% | |
| CHF | 0.33% | -0.27% | -0.24% | -0.13% | -0.03% | -0.47% | -0.65% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Given that the Australian economy relies heavily on its exports to Beijing, positive commentary from China increases the Aussie Dollar’s appeal.
AUD/USD consolidates in a tight range of 0.6340-0.6515 for over a month. The pair wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.6415, indicating a sideways trend.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates near 60.00. Bulls would come into action if the RSI breaks above that level.
More upside would appear towards the November 25 high of 0.6550 and the round-level resistance of 0.6600 if the pair if the pair breaks above the May 7 high of 0.6515.
On the flip side, a downside move below the March 4 low of 0.6187 will expose it towards the February low of 0.6087, followed by the psychological support of 0.6000.
AUD/USD daily chart
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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